Global Tuna Market: Projected to Reach 4.8M Tons and $29.4B by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Tuna (Prepared Or Preserved) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The global tuna market is set to see continued growth over the next seven years, with a forecasted CAGR of +2.4% in volume and +4.7% in value from 2023 to 2030. This growth is attributed to increasing demand for tuna products worldwide.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for tuna (prepared or preserved) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.4% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 4.8M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $29.4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Tuna (Prepared or Preserved)

Global preserved tuna consumption reached 4.1M tons in 2023, remaining constant against 2022 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 4.1M tons in 2020; afterwards, it flattened through to 2023.

The global preserved tuna market revenue reached $21.3B in 2023, approximately reflecting the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

China (1.3M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of preserved tuna consumption, accounting for 33% of total volume. Moreover, preserved tuna consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Spain (361K tons), fourfold. Indonesia (216K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 5.3% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +5.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+3.0% per year) and Indonesia (+4.3% per year).

In value terms, China ($6.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Spain ($2.2B). It was followed by Italy.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value in China stood at +3.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Spain (+2.1% per year) and Italy (+2.7% per year).

In 2023, the highest levels of preserved tuna per capita consumption was registered in Spain (7.6 kg per person), followed by Italy (3.2 kg per person), Germany (2.5 kg per person) and Thailand (2.2 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of preserved tuna was estimated at 0.5 kg per person.

In Spain, preserved tuna per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Italy (+2.3% per year) and Germany (+0.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Tuna (Prepared or Preserved)

In 2023, global preserved tuna production fell to 4M tons, remaining constant against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 13%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 4M tons in 2020; afterwards, it flattened through to 2023.

In value terms, preserved tuna production stood at $19.9B in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 13% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $20B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (1.5M tons) remains the largest preserved tuna producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 37% of total volume. Moreover, preserved tuna production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Thailand (546K tons), threefold. Spain (325K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with an 8.2% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +5.2%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Thailand (-0.8% per year) and Spain (+2.3% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Tuna (Prepared or Preserved)

In 2023, approx. 1.6M tons of tuna (prepared or preserved) were imported worldwide; dropping by -8.8% compared with the previous year. In general, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 11% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 1.8M tons. From 2021 to 2023, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, preserved tuna imports reduced modestly to $8.8B in 2023. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $8.9B in 2022, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2023, the United States (218K tons), followed by Spain (141K tons), Italy (134K tons), France (94K tons), the UK (88K tons) and Germany (80K tons) were the major importers of tuna (prepared or preserved), together creating 47% of total imports. The following importers - Japan (70K tons), the Netherlands (60K tons), Thailand (56K tons) and Saudi Arabia (47K tons) - together made up 14% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Thailand (with a CAGR of +9.0%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest preserved tuna importing markets worldwide were the United States ($1.1B), Italy ($1B) and Spain ($841M), together comprising 34% of global imports. France, the UK, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Thailand and Saudi Arabia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

Thailand, with a CAGR of +6.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average preserved tuna import price stood at $5,471 per ton in 2023, with an increase of 8% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $5,586 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($7,497 per ton), while Thailand ($4,009 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+0.4%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Tuna (Prepared or Preserved)

In 2023, approx. 1.5M tons of tuna (prepared or preserved) were exported worldwide; which is down by -12% against 2022. Overall, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 17%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 1.7M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, preserved tuna exports dropped slightly to $8.2B in 2023. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a mild increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 23% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $8.4B in 2022, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Thailand represented the main exporter of tuna (prepared or preserved) in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 445K tons, which was near 30% of total exports in 2023. Ecuador (218K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 15% share, followed by China (9.4%), Spain (7%), Indonesia (4.7%) and the Philippines (4.6%). Vietnam (60K tons), the Netherlands (54K tons), Papua New Guinea (47K tons) and Italy (31K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to preserved tuna exports from Thailand stood at -2.1%. At the same time, the Netherlands (+10.2%), China (+6.7%), Italy (+5.4%), Papua New Guinea (+4.8%), Spain (+2.9%), Ecuador (+2.1%) and Vietnam (+2.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +10.2% from 2013-2023. Indonesia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Philippines (-7.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2023, the share of China, Ecuador, the Netherlands and Spain increased by +4.3, +2.2, +2.2 and +1.5 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest preserved tuna supplying countries worldwide were Thailand ($2.1B), Ecuador ($1.2B) and China ($832M), with a combined 50% share of global exports. Spain, Indonesia, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Vietnam, Italy and Papua New Guinea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +9.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average preserved tuna export price amounted to $5,555 per ton, picking up by 11% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the average export price increased by 13%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($9,094 per ton), while the Philippines ($4,637 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+1.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform