Global Refined Coconut Oil Market: Increasing Consumption Trend Expected to Drive Market Volume to 24M Tons by 2030, Reaching $66.2B in Value

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Refined Coconut (Copra) Oil - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The article discusses the rising demand for refined coconut oil worldwide, with forecasts indicating a slight increase in market performance over the next six years. By 2030, the market volume is predicted to reach 24M tons, with a market value of $66.2B. Anticipated CAGR rates for both volume and value highlight the potential growth in the industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for refined coconut oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next six years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 24M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $66.2B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Refined Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2024, approx. 22M tons of refined coconut (copra) oil were consumed worldwide; approximately reflecting the previous year. In general, consumption, however, recorded a noticeable descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 9.8% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 29M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global refined coconut oil market revenue rose slightly to $55.6B in 2024, with an increase of 1.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $56.6B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The United States (15M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of refined coconut oil consumption, comprising approx. 69% of total volume. Moreover, refined coconut oil consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (1.1M tons), more than tenfold.

In the United States, refined coconut oil consumption declined by an average annual rate of -3.7% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: China (+3.3% per year) and India (+3.2% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($38.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($1.7B).

In the United States, the refined coconut oil market increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+6.4% per year) and India (+4.2% per year).

In the United States, refined coconut oil per capita consumption decreased by an average annual rate of -4.3% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+2.9% per year) and India (+2.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Refined Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2024, global refined coconut oil production stood at 22M tons, approximately equating 2023 figures. Overall, production, however, saw a perceptible shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 9.8%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume at 29M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, refined coconut oil production totaled $56B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $56.7B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of refined coconut oil production was the United States (15M tons), comprising approx. 67% of total volume. Moreover, refined coconut oil production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (906K tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the Philippines (651K tons), with a 2.9% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in the United States totaled -3.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+3.1% per year) and the Philippines (+2.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Refined Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2024, approx. 1.2M tons of refined coconut (copra) oil were imported worldwide; surging by 3.2% against the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 13%. As a result, imports attained the peak of 1.2M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

In value terms, refined coconut oil imports rose notably to $1.9B in 2024. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -24.9% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 57% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at $2.6B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

In 2024, the United States (315K tons), distantly followed by China (166K tons) and Germany (84K tons) were the main importers of refined coconut (copra) oil, together generating 48% of total imports. The following importers - South Korea (51K tons), Sri Lanka (43K tons), Japan (41K tons), Italy (40K tons), Russia (33K tons), Poland (25K tons) and Belgium (25K tons) - together made up 22% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Sri Lanka (with a CAGR of +32.5%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($508M) constitutes the largest market for imported refined coconut (copra) oil worldwide, comprising 26% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by China ($217M), with an 11% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 7.2% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States totaled +2.9%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: China (+7.4% per year) and Germany (+5.3% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average refined coconut oil import price stood at $1,662 per ton in 2024, with an increase of 5.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a noticeable increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, refined coconut oil import price decreased by -20.9% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 46% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $2,100 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Poland ($1,914 per ton) and Italy ($1,908 per ton), while Sri Lanka ($1,291 per ton) and China ($1,304 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Refined Coconut (Copra) Oil

In 2024, approx. 1.2M tons of refined coconut (copra) oil were exported worldwide; picking up by 21% against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, refined coconut oil exports rose notably to $1.9B in 2024. In general, total exports indicated noticeable growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports decreased by -17.0% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 48% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $2.2B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

The Philippines represented the major exporting country with an export of around 589K tons, which finished at 49% of total exports. Indonesia (221K tons) took an 18% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (12%) and Malaysia (8.2%). Spain (39K tons) and the United States (23K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

Exports from the Philippines increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Spain (+16.6%) and the United States (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +16.6% from 2013-2024. Indonesia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Malaysia (-1.6%) and the Netherlands (-4.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of the Philippines and Spain increased by +9.3 and +2.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Philippines ($791M) emerged as the largest refined coconut oil supplier worldwide, comprising 43% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Indonesia ($278M), with a 15% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 14% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in the Philippines amounted to +5.6%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Indonesia (+2.5% per year) and the Netherlands (+0.0% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average refined coconut oil export price amounted to $1,531 per ton, which is down by -5.9% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a tangible expansion from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, refined coconut oil export price decreased by -25.7% against 2022 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the average export price increased by 44% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $2,062 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($2,468 per ton), while Indonesia ($1,257 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+5.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform