Worldwide Rye Market: 14M tons in volume and $6.5B in value expected by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Rye - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

Driven by increasing global demand, the rye market is expected to see growth over the next seven years. With a forecasted CAGR of +1.3% in volume and +3.9% in value, the market is projected to reach 14M tons and $6.5B by 2030, signaling positive trends in consumption and value.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for rye worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 14M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $6.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Rye

In 2023, global rye consumption reduced modestly to 13M tons, leveling off at the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, consumption showed a pronounced descent. Global consumption peaked at 17M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global rye market value fell slightly to $5B in 2023, which is down by -4.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption continues to indicate a slight shrinkage. Global consumption peaked at $5.7B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were Germany (3.4M tons), Russia (1.8M tons) and Poland (1.7M tons), with a combined 53% share of global consumption. Belarus, Denmark, the United States, China, Ukraine, Spain and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +3.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest rye markets worldwide were Germany ($1.1B), China ($962M) and Denmark ($544M), with a combined 52% share of the global market.

Denmark, with a CAGR of +6.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of rye per capita consumption in 2023 were Denmark (122 kg per person), Belarus (84 kg per person) and Poland (46 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +3.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Rye

In 2023, the amount of rye produced worldwide fell modestly to 13M tons, approximately reflecting 2022 figures. Overall, production recorded a noticeable decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 19%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 17M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a pronounced reduction of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, rye production declined modestly to $5B in 2023 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a mild downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $5.7B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were Germany (3.2M tons), Poland (2.4M tons) and Russia (2M tons), together comprising 58% of global production. Belarus, Denmark, China, Ukraine, Canada, the United States and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Canada (with a CAGR of +7.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2023, the global average rye yield shrank slightly to 3.2 tons per ha, reducing by -3.7% compared with 2022. Overall, the yield, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the yield increased by 14%. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 3.4 tons per ha. From 2021 to 2023, the growth of the average rye yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

In 2023, the total area harvested in terms of rye production worldwide stood at 4.2M ha, surging by 3.5% against 2022. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, recorded a noticeable descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 5.5%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to rye production attained the peak figure at 5.7M ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Rye

In 2023, supplies from abroad of rye decreased by -3% to 1.5M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. In general, imports continue to indicate a slight decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when imports increased by 56%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at 2.1M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, rye imports shrank notably to $443M in 2023. Overall, imports saw a slight setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 55%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $533M in 2022, and then contracted dramatically in the following year.

Imports By Country

Germany (472K tons) and the United States (339K tons) represented roughly 55% of total imports in 2023. Spain (187K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by the Netherlands (159K tons) and Latvia (77K tons). All these countries together took approx. 29% share of total imports. Denmark (38K tons) and Portugal (30K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Latvia (with a CAGR of +23.6%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the imports figures.

In value terms, the largest rye importing markets worldwide were the United States ($120M), Germany ($120M) and Spain ($46M), with a combined 64% share of global imports. The Netherlands, Latvia, Denmark and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 18%.

Latvia, with a CAGR of +18.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the imports figures.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average rye import price amounted to $299 per ton, dropping by -14.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the average import price increased by 39%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $349 per ton, and then declined in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($354 per ton), while Latvia ($185 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Denmark (+1.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Rye

Global rye exports rose sharply to 1.6M tons in 2023, growing by 6.1% against the previous year's figure. Overall, exports, however, recorded a mild reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 55% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 2.3M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, rye exports dropped to $474M in 2023. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 68% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $538M in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Poland (680K tons) represented the main exporter of rye, committing 42% of total exports. Germany (268K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Canada (229K tons) and Russia (158K tons). All these countries together took approx. 41% share of total exports. The following exporters - Latvia (51K tons), the Czech Republic (32K tons) and the UK (28K tons) - together made up 6.9% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to rye exports from Poland stood at -2.7%. At the same time, the UK (+76.9%), Russia (+18.6%), Latvia (+7.5%) and Canada (+3.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the UK emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +76.9% from 2013-2023. By contrast, Germany (-5.8%) and the Czech Republic (-6.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2023, the share of Russia, Canada, Latvia and the UK increased by +8.4, +6.1, +1.9 and +1.8 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest rye supplying countries worldwide were Poland ($169M), Germany ($94M) and Canada ($81M), together accounting for 73% of global exports. Russia, Latvia, the UK and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 15%.

The UK, with a CAGR of +53.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average rye export price amounted to $295 per ton, declining by -8.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a modest increase from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, rye export price increased by +45.2% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 an increase of 35% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $323 per ton, and then contracted in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($354 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($216 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Germany (+2.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform