Global Saturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons Market to Expand at CAGR of +2.1% Through 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Saturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The global market for saturated acyclic hydrocarbons is expected to experience continued growth in demand over the next six years, with market performance forecasted to expand at a CAGR of +2.1% in volume and +4.3% in value from 2024 to 2030. By the end of 2030, the market volume is projected to reach 38 million tons, with a market value of $34.5 billion in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for saturated acyclic hydrocarbons worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next six-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 38M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2024 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $34.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Saturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons

In 2024, approx. 33M tons of saturated acyclic hydrocarbons were consumed worldwide; surging by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated strong growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption increased by +85.7% against 2013 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

The global saturated acyclic hydrocarbons market revenue amounted to $26.8B in 2024, picking up by 9.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Russia (12M tons), China (6.4M tons) and the United States (2M tons), with a combined 60% share of global consumption. Canada, India, Mexico, Norway, Sweden, Japan and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 22%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Norway (with a CAGR of +45.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest saturated acyclic hydrocarbons markets worldwide were Russia ($7.2B), China ($4.1B) and Japan ($1.9B), with a combined 49% share of the global market. The United States, Mexico, India, Sweden, Canada, Norway and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 19%.

Norway, with a CAGR of +42.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of saturated acyclic hydrocarbons per capita consumption in 2024 were Norway (150 kg per person), Russia (80 kg per person) and Sweden (77 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Norway (with a CAGR of +44.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Saturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons

For the fourth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in production of saturated acyclic hydrocarbons, which increased by 6.4% to 36M tons in 2024. In general, the total production indicated prominent growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production increased by +110.4% against 2013 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, saturated acyclic hydrocarbons production totaled $26.2B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were the United States (19M tons) and Russia (12M tons).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +29.4%).

Imports

World Imports of Saturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons

In 2024, global saturated acyclic hydrocarbons imports surged to 17M tons, with an increase of 24% on 2023 figures. In general, imports enjoyed a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 49%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, saturated acyclic hydrocarbons imports expanded remarkably to $7.5B in 2024. Overall, imports continue to indicate resilient growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 60% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $8.3B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

China represented the key importer of saturated acyclic hydrocarbons in the world, with the volume of imports reaching 6.3M tons, which was approx. 37% of total imports in 2024. Canada (2.3M tons) held a 14% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by India (8.4%), Mexico (8.3%), the United States (6.2%), Sweden (5%) and Norway (5%).

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the saturated acyclic hydrocarbons imports, with a CAGR of +54.5% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Norway (+31.5%), India (+30.0%), Mexico (+27.3%), Canada (+15.7%), the United States (+5.3%) and Sweden (+3.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. From 2013 to 2024, the share of China, India, Mexico and Norway increased by +36, +6.1, +5.4 and +3.7 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($2.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported saturated acyclic hydrocarbons worldwide, comprising 35% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($910M), with a 12% share of global imports. It was followed by India, with an 8% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in China stood at +38.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+3.8% per year) and India (+18.1% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average saturated acyclic hydrocarbons import price amounted to $444 per ton, declining by -14.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a abrupt decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average import price increased by 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $952 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($869 per ton), while Canada ($142 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (-1.4%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Saturated Acyclic Hydrocarbons

For the fourth consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in shipments abroad of saturated acyclic hydrocarbons, which increased by 11% to 20M tons in 2024. In general, exports continue to indicate a prominent expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 54% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2024 and are likely to see steady growth in the near future.

In value terms, saturated acyclic hydrocarbons exports soared to $9B in 2024. Over the period under review, exports showed buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 83% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2024 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The United States prevails in exports structure, accounting for 18M tons, which was approx. 91% of total exports in 2024. Canada (852K tons) and Russia (332K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

The United States was also the fastest-growing in terms of the saturated acyclic hydrocarbons exports, with a CAGR of +39.5% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Canada (+3.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Russia (-10.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The United States (+73 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Canada and Russia saw its share reduced by -16.4% and -37.1% from 2013 to 2024, respectively.

In value terms, the United States ($6.6B) remains the largest saturated acyclic hydrocarbons supplier worldwide, comprising 74% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Canada ($880M), with a 9.8% share of global exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States amounted to +25.7%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Canada (+4.6% per year) and Russia (-11.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average saturated acyclic hydrocarbons export price stood at $446 per ton in 2024, increasing by 9.2% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate a deep slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 22% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $1,024 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,032 per ton), while the United States ($362 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+0.7%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform