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Brazil - Coffee (Green) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Report Update: May 1, 2025

Brazil - Coffee (Green) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights

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Dec 10, 2024

Severe Drought Forces Volcafe to Slash Brazil's Arabica Coffee Production Outlook

Volcafe Ltd., one of the world's leading coffee traders, has significantly cut its forecast for Brazil's arabica coffee production after extensive crop analysis. The adjustment follows an appraisal by Bloomberg News highlighting the damaging impacts of a prolonged drought. Brazil is now expected to produce merely 34.4 million bags of arabica beans in the upcoming season, a reduction of about 11 million bags from estimates made in September.

This considerable decrease foreshadows a global coffee production deficit, with shortfalls projected at 8.5 million bags for the 2025/26 season. This situation has become critical as it will mark the fifth consecutive year of production falling behind demand, potentially disrupting global supply chains and market equilibrium. The unfavorable conditions in Brazil were evidenced by high rates of blossom failure across 1,850 sampled farms, with adverse weather being cited as a key factor.

In terms of trade statistics, as reported by IndexBox, Brazil's export value for green coffee was approximately USD 7.3 billion in 2023. The United States stood as the largest destination with exports valued at USD 1.2 billion, followed by Germany at USD 1.1 billion, Italy at USD 695.9 million, Belgium at USD 482.3 million, and Japan at USD 456.9 million. These figures reflect Brazil's substantial role in the global coffee trade, despite recent production challenges.

Arabica coffee futures have experienced a significant surge, reaching levels not seen since 1977. This is attributed to concerns over the ongoing drought and its impact on Brazil's output. Producers and traders alike are warily watching Brazil's market, as future pricing structures remain uncertain without the expected surplus from the world's leading coffee grower.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the green coffee market in Brazil. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

Product coverage:

  • FCL 656 - Coffee green

Country coverage:

  • Brazil

Data coverage:

  • Market volume and value
  • Per Capita consumption
  • Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
  • Trade (exports and imports) in Brazil
  • Export and import prices
  • Market trends, drivers and restraints
  • Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:

  • Take advantage of the latest data
  • Find deeper insights into current market developments
  • Discover vital success factors affecting the market

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

  1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
  2. How to load your idle production capacity
  3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
  4. How to increase your profit margins
  5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
  6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
  7. How to outsource production to other countries
  8. How to prepare your business for global expansion

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE
    2. MARKET STRUCTURE
    3. TRADE BALANCE
    4. PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
    5. MARKET FORECAST TO 2030

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCT
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
    4. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    5. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION, HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD

  8. 8. IMPORTS

    The Largest Import Supplying Countries

    1. IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  9. 9. EXPORTS

    The Largest Destinations for Exports

    1. EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  11. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2024
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    3. Market Value, 2012–2024
    4. Per Capita Consumption In 2012-2024
    5. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    6. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    7. Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
    8. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    9. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    10. Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024

  12. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    2. Market Value, 2012–2024
    3. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012-2024
    4. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012-2024
    5. Trade Balance, In Physical Terms, 2012-2024
    6. Trade Balance, In Value Terms, 2012-2024
    7. Per Capita Consumption, 2012-2024
    8. Market Volume Forecast to 2030
    9. Market Value Forecast to 2030
    10. Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
    11. Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
    12. Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
    13. Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
    14. Production Volume And Growth
    15. Yield And Growth
    16. Exports And Growth
    17. Export Prices And Growth
    18. Market Size And Growth
    19. Per Capita Consumption
    20. Imports And Growth
    21. Import Prices
    22. Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    23. Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    24. Area Harvested, 2012–2024
    25. Yield, 2012–2024
    26. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    27. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    28. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    29. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    30. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    31. Import Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
    32. Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    33. Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    34. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    35. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    36. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    37. Export Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024

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