Global Skim Milk Market to Reach 149M Tons in Volume and $133.8B in Value by 2030, Driven by Increasing Demand

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The global skim milk market is anticipated to see a rise in consumption due to growing demand across the globe. Market performance is expected to accelerate with a CAGR of +1.7% in volume and +3.9% in value from 2023 to 2030. By the end of 2030, the market volume is projected to reach 149M tons, with a market value of $133.8B in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for skim milk worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 149M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $133.8B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Skim Milk

In 2023, approx. 132M tons of skim milk were consumed worldwide; remaining constant against 2022. In general, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume at 137M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global skim milk market size amounted to $102.6B in 2023, growing by 1.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 8.2%. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $104.2B. From 2018 to 2023, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were the United States (17M tons), Germany (12M tons) and France (9.3M tons), with a combined 29% share of global consumption. New Zealand, Russia, Iran, Ireland, India, the UK, Belarus, Poland, Canada and the Netherlands lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +5.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($15.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by New Zealand ($6B). It was followed by Canada.

In the United States, the skim milk market remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: New Zealand (-2.0% per year) and Canada (+6.4% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of skim milk per capita consumption in 2023 were New Zealand (1,396 kg per person), Ireland (873 kg per person) and Belarus (352 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +4.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Skim Milk

In 2023, the amount of skim milk produced worldwide dropped to 132M tons, remaining stable against 2022 figures. Overall, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 2.5%. Global production peaked at 137M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, production remained at a lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the number of producing animals and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, skim milk production expanded modestly to $102.2B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $107.8B. From 2018 to 2023, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were the United States (17M tons), Germany (12M tons) and France (9.4M tons), together accounting for 29% of global production. New Zealand, Russia, Ireland, Iran, India, the UK, Belarus, Poland, the Netherlands and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 32%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +5.9%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Skim Milk

In 2023, approx. 1.5M tons of skim milk were imported worldwide; increasing by 3.4% compared with the previous year. In general, total imports indicated a notable expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports decreased by -14.6% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when imports increased by 41%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 1.7M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, skim milk imports reduced to $924M in 2023. Over the period under review, total imports indicated temperate growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports decreased by -21.5% against 2021 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $1.2B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2023, Belgium (330K tons) and Italy (285K tons) were the key importers of skim milkin the world, together recording near 42% of total imports. The United Arab Emirates (106K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Germany (104K tons), the Netherlands (101K tons) and China (73K tons). All these countries together took approx. 26% share of total imports. Mauritania (39K tons), Spain (36K tons), Kuwait (36K tons) and Poland (32K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +48.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest skim milk importing markets worldwide were Belgium ($187M), the Netherlands ($136M) and Italy ($93M), together comprising 45% of global imports. The United Arab Emirates, China, Germany, Kuwait, Spain, Mauritania and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

The United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +40.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average skim milk import price stood at $633 per ton in 2023, reducing by -4.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average import price increased by 19% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $719 per ton in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,342 per ton), while Italy ($326 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+11.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Skim Milk

In 2023, overseas shipments of skim milk decreased by -1.6% to 1.2M tons, falling for the fourth consecutive year after three years of growth. In general, exports showed a pronounced contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 15%. The global exports peaked at 1.8M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, skim milk exports declined to $650M in 2023. Over the period under review, exports recorded a perceptible slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 29%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at $992M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Saudi Arabia (206K tons) and Germany (201K tons) were the key exporters of skim milkin the world, together resulting at approx. 34% of total exports. The Netherlands (125K tons) took an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Austria (8.7%), Belgium (7.9%) and France (7.8%). The following exporters - South Africa (39K tons), Egypt (32K tons), Latvia (29K tons), Ireland (26K tons), Denmark (22K tons) and the Czech Republic (20K tons) - together made up 14% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +20.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($163M) remains the largest skim milk supplier worldwide, comprising 25% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($79M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 9.1% share.

In Saudi Arabia, skim milk exports increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (-7.0% per year) and the Netherlands (+18.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average skim milk export price stood at $549 per ton in 2023, remaining stable against the previous year. Overall, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $607 per ton in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Denmark ($1,284 per ton), while Austria ($276 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Denmark (+12.0%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform