Worldwide Sour Cherries Market to Grow at 2.1% CAGR, Reaching $2.7B by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Sour Cherries - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The sour cherry market is on an upward consumption trend, with demand expected to rise globally. By 2030, market volume is forecasted to reach 1.8M tons, accompanied by a market value of $2.7B. This growth is attributed to a projected CAGR of +2.1% in volume and +4.3% in value over the next seven years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for sour cherries worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.8M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $2.7B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Sour Cherries

In 2023, consumption of sour cherries decreased by -1.8% to 1.6M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a three-year rising trend. Overall, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 1.6M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2023.

The global sour cherry market revenue shrank modestly to $2B in 2023, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption continues to indicate a slight decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the market value increased by 7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $2.3B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were Russia (296K tons), Ukraine (187K tons) and Turkey (180K tons), together accounting for 42% of global consumption. Poland, Serbia, Iran, the United States and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of +6.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($495M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Russia ($236M). It was followed by Ukraine.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States totaled -4.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+3.0% per year) and Ukraine (+1.0% per year).

In 2023, the highest levels of sour cherry per capita consumption was registered in Serbia (23 kg per person), followed by Poland (4.6 kg per person), Ukraine (4.3 kg per person) and Uzbekistan (2.1 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of sour cherry was estimated at 0.2 kg per person.

In Serbia, sour cherry per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Poland (-0.4% per year) and Ukraine (-0.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Sour Cherries

In 2023, after three years of growth, there was decline in production of sour cherries, when its volume decreased by -2.1% to 1.6M tons. Overall, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 16%. Global production peaked at 1.6M tons in 2022, and then reduced slightly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, sour cherry production totaled $2B in 2023 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a slight descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 6.9%. Global production peaked at $2.3B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were Russia (287K tons), Ukraine (187K tons) and Turkey (180K tons), with a combined 41% share of global production. Poland, Serbia, Iran, the United States and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of +6.8%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average sour cherry yield declined modestly to 7.1 tons per ha in 2023, with a decrease of -1.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the yield, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 10%. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of 7.3 tons per ha. From 2019 to 2023, the growth of the average sour cherry yield failed to regain momentum.

Harvested Area

In 2023, the total area harvested in terms of sour cherries production worldwide dropped modestly to 223K ha, standing approx. at the year before. Overall, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the harvested area increased by 4.9%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to sour cherry production reached the peak figure at 225K ha in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Sour Cherries

For the third consecutive year, the global market recorded decline in overseas purchases of sour cherries, which decreased by -3.9% to 45K tons in 2023. In general, imports showed a perceptible curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 37% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 81K tons. From 2019 to 2023, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry imports totaled $80M in 2023. Over the period under review, imports recorded a perceptible descent. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at $110M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

Germany (9.6K tons) and Russia (8.6K tons) represented roughly 40% of total imports in 2023. Austria (2.6K tons) held a 5.7% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (5.3%). Romania (1.9K tons), Estonia (1.6K tons), Hungary (1.5K tons), Italy (1.5K tons), Bosnia and Herzegovina (1K tons) and Egypt (1K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Estonia (with a CAGR of +54.9%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest sour cherry importing markets worldwide were Russia ($10M), Germany ($9M) and Estonia ($5.2M), together comprising 30% of global imports.

Estonia, with a CAGR of +67.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average sour cherry import price amounted to $1,779 per ton, picking up by 17% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 30%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $1,836 per ton. From 2018 to 2023, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Estonia ($3,322 per ton), while Bosnia and Herzegovina ($626 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+14.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Sour Cherries

In 2023, global sour cherry exports declined to 44K tons, shrinking by -14.6% on 2022 figures. In general, exports recorded a perceptible reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when exports increased by 24%. The global exports peaked at 80K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry exports amounted to $76M in 2023. Over the period under review, exports recorded a pronounced shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 38% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $139M. From 2018 to 2023, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the three major exporters of sour cherries, namely Serbia, Hungary and Iran, represented more than third of total export. Poland (3.4K tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Moldova (2.8K tons) and Spain (2.8K tons). All these countries together took approx. 20% share of total exports. The following exporters - the Czech Republic (2K tons), the United States (1.6K tons), Lebanon (1.6K tons) and Syrian Arab Republic (1.6K tons) - each finished at a 15% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Iran (with a CAGR of +49.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest sour cherry supplying countries worldwide were Spain ($13M), Iran ($7.5M) and the United States ($6.8M), together comprising 36% of global exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Iran, with a CAGR of +38.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average sour cherry export price amounted to $1,717 per ton, increasing by 19% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2023, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.4%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 23% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $1,735 per ton. From 2018 to 2023, the average export prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Spain ($4,727 per ton), while Moldova ($804 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+4.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform