Stock Market Resilience Amidst Tariff Threats
The stock market continues to hold its ground near all-time highs, even with the looming threat of tariffs. For a detailed analysis, you can refer to the original article published on TKer.co.
Recent data from the IndexBox platform highlights how the U.S. economy remains resilient despite potential tariff challenges. As of January 2025, U.S. employers added an impressive 143,000 jobs, marking the 49th consecutive month of job growth. This robust hiring comes even as the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.0%, hovering near historical lows.
Despite potential headwinds, earnings growth has showcased significant strength, with nearly two-thirds of the S&P 500 companies reporting better-than-expected earnings for Q4. According to FactSet, EPS growth is on track to grow by 16.4% year-over-year, notably higher than the 11.8% initially forecasted by analysts.
Potential Tariff Impacts on Earnings
While investors remain cautious about the impact of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, there is a silver lining as the direct effects of these tariffs have not yet been fully incorporated into companies' earnings projections. Analysts like Goldman Sachs and BofA have quantified that tariffs could potentially reduce S&P 500 EPS by up to 8%—a significant figure worth monitoring.
Consumer and Business Sentiment
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey shows a drop in sentiment, reaching its lowest point since July 2024. This sentiment decline is pervasive across all political and demographic groups, underscoring apprehensions about potential tariffs. However, core consumer spending data reveals a contrasting reality. Reports from JPMorgan and BofA suggest that card spending per household is on the rise, indicating sustained consumer confidence.
Business investments are also trending at record levels. Orders for nondefense capital goods reflect a positive outlook as business confidence in the U.S. manufacturing sector reaches its highest point in nearly three years. Such upbeat sentiment is paired with an increase in service sector activity, albeit slower, attributed partially to adverse weather conditions disrupting initial growth in January.
Conclusion
While the threat of tariffs holds potential implications for future earnings, the U.S. economy's broader resilience cannot be understated. Key sectors of business activity remain robust, and job creation continues to propel forward, indicating confidence among both employers and consumers. Nevertheless, the situation remains fluid, and market participants should keep a close eye on developments in tariff negotiations and broader geopolitical events.
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1. INTRODUCTION
Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
- REPORT DESCRIPTION
- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
- DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
- GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A Quick Overview of Market Performance
- KEY FINDINGS
- MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
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3. MARKET OVERVIEW
Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
- MARKET SIZE
- CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
- MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
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4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT
Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
- BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
- MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
- MOST TRADED PRODUCT
- MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
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5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES
Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
- TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
- LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
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6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS
Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
- TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
- UNSATURATED MARKETS
- TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
- MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION
The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
- PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
- PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS
The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed
- IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
- IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS
The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed
- EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
- EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
- EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
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10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO -
11. COUNTRY PROFILES
The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO- United States
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Brazil
- Italy
- Russian Federation
- India
- Canada
- Australia
- Republic of Korea
- Spain
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- Netherlands
- Turkey
- Saudi Arabia
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Nigeria
- Poland
- Belgium
- Argentina
- Norway
- Austria
- Thailand
- United Arab Emirates
- Colombia
- Denmark
- South Africa
- Malaysia
- Israel
- Singapore
- Egypt
- Philippines
- Finland
- Chile
- Ireland
- Pakistan
- Greece
- Portugal
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Czech Republic
- Qatar
- Peru
- Romania
- Vietnam
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LIST OF TABLES
- Key Findings In 2024
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2024
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
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LIST OF FIGURES
- Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Market Value, 2012–2024
- Consumption, By Country, 2024
- Market Volume Forecast to 2030
- Market Value Forecast to 2030
- Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
- Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
- Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
- Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
- Production Volume And Growth
- Exports And Growth
- Export Prices And Growth
- Market Size And Growth
- Per Capita Consumption
- Imports And Growth
- Import Prices
- Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Production, By Country, 2024
- Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
- Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
- Export Prices, 2012–2024