Global Tall Oil Fatty Acids Market: Rising Demand to Drive Market Volume to 444K Tons and Market Value to $935M by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Industrial Tall Oil Fatty Acids - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.

The market for tall oil fatty acids is set to experience a steady rise in demand, with a forecasted CAGR of +4.7% in volume and +6.8% in value from 2023 to 2030. This growth is expected to bring the market volume to 444K tons and the market value to $935M by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for tall oil fatty acids worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +4.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 444K tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.8% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $935M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Industrial Tall Oil Fatty Acids

In 2023, consumption of industrial tall oil fatty acids increased by 2.4% to 322K tons, rising for the second year in a row after four years of decline. Overall, consumption, however, recorded a mild reduction. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 455K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global tall oil fatty acids market revenue surged to $592M in 2023, picking up by 16% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were the United States (58K tons), France (43K tons) and the Netherlands (41K tons), with a combined 44% share of global consumption. Finland, Belgium, Germany, Australia, Malaysia, Austria, the UK, Italy, Sweden and Japan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Australia (with a CAGR of +20.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, France ($96M), the Netherlands ($77M) and the United States ($69M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2023, together accounting for 41% of the global market. Finland, Germany, Australia, Belgium, Italy, the UK, Austria, Japan, Sweden and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 37%.

Australia, with a CAGR of +29.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2023, the highest levels of tall oil fatty acids per capita consumption was registered in Finland (6.5 kg per person), followed by the Netherlands (2.3 kg per person), Belgium (1.1 kg per person) and Austria (0.9 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of tall oil fatty acids was estimated at less than 0.1 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of the tall oil fatty acids per capita consumption in Finland amounted to -2.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+5.2% per year) and Belgium (+1.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Industrial Tall Oil Fatty Acids

In 2023, the amount of industrial tall oil fatty acids produced worldwide reached 379K tons, leveling off at the previous year. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 5.7%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 390K tons. From 2018 to 2023, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tall oil fatty acids production rose remarkably to $608M in 2023 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the production volume increased by 14%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of tall oil fatty acids production was the United States (166K tons), comprising approx. 44% of total volume. Moreover, tall oil fatty acids production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Finland (78K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Sweden (53K tons), with a 14% share.

In the United States, tall oil fatty acids production remained relatively stable over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Finland (-3.6% per year) and Sweden (+0.8% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Industrial Tall Oil Fatty Acids

In 2023, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of industrial tall oil fatty acids, when their volume decreased by -7.3% to 200K tons. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 14% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 246K tons. From 2018 to 2023, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, tall oil fatty acids imports soared to $451M in 2023. Overall, total imports indicated tangible growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +111.2% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when imports increased by 37% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2023 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2023, the Netherlands (43K tons), distantly followed by France (19K tons), Belgium (15K tons) and Germany (11K tons) were the major importers of industrial tall oil fatty acids, together constituting 44% of total imports. Australia (8.7K tons), Malaysia (8.3K tons), the UK (8.1K tons), Italy (7.3K tons), the United States (5.7K tons), Saudi Arabia (5.5K tons), South Korea (4.9K tons), Spain (4.6K tons) and Poland (4.2K tons) held a minor share of total imports.

The Netherlands was also the fastest-growing in terms of the industrial tall oil fatty acids imports, with a CAGR of +26.1% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Australia (+21.9%), Saudi Arabia (+11.6%), South Korea (+5.9%), Belgium (+3.3%) and Spain (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. The United States, Malaysia and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Italy (-1.8%), France (-3.6%), Poland (-3.8%) and the UK (-11.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2023, the share of the Netherlands, Australia, Italy, Belgium and Saudi Arabia increased by +19, +3.8, +3.7, +2.2 and +1.9 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($93M) constitutes the largest market for imported industrial tall oil fatty acids worldwide, comprising 21% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by France ($35M), with a 7.9% share of global imports. It was followed by Australia, with a 6.5% share.

In the Netherlands, tall oil fatty acids imports expanded at an average annual rate of +28.3% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: France (-0.3% per year) and Australia (+33.1% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average tall oil fatty acids import price stood at $2,256 per ton in 2023, growing by 24% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated temperate growth from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, tall oil fatty acids import price increased by +103.2% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the average import price increased by 26%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Australia ($3,353 per ton), while Malaysia ($741 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+11.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Industrial Tall Oil Fatty Acids

In 2023, shipments abroad of industrial tall oil fatty acids decreased by -7.1% to 257K tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw notable growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 66%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at 309K tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, tall oil fatty acids exports stood at $547M in 2023. In general, exports, however, showed prominent growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 98%. The global exports peaked in 2023 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The United States represented the main exporter of industrial tall oil fatty acids in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 114K tons, which was near 44% of total exports in 2023. Sweden (48K tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Finland (43K tons) and the Netherlands (25K tons). All these countries together held approx. 45% share of total exports. France (6.8K tons) took a little share of total exports.

Exports from the United States increased at an average annual rate of +8.8% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, the Netherlands (+23.9%), Sweden (+1.6%) and France (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +23.9% from 2013-2023. By contrast, Finland (-4.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United States (+20 p.p.) and the Netherlands (+8.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2013-2023, the share of Finland (-16.7 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Finland ($169M), the United States ($143M) and Sweden ($110M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2023, with a combined 77% share of global exports. The Netherlands and France lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 16%.

Among the main exporting countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +30.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average tall oil fatty acids export price stood at $2,126 per ton in 2023, with an increase of 12% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed measured growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the average export price increased by 36%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Finland ($3,932 per ton), while the United States ($1,250 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Finland (+8.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform