Global Tomato Market: Anticipated CAGR of +2.5% Projected to Reach 217M Tons by 2030

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The global tomato market is set to experience significant growth, driven by rising demand worldwide. From 2023 to 2030, the market is projected to expand at a CAGR of +2.5% in volume and +4.3% in value, reaching 217M tons and $318.5B respectively by the end of the period.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for tomatoes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 217M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $318.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Tomatoes

In 2023, global tomato consumption reduced modestly to 182M tons, remaining stable against the year before. Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 186M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global tomato market revenue was estimated at $236.6B in 2023, rising by 9.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.9% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of tomato consumption was China (67M tons), accounting for 37% of total volume. Moreover, tomato consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (21M tons), threefold. Turkey (12M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.5% share.

In China, tomato consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+1.6% per year) and Turkey (+0.9% per year).

In value terms, China ($70.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Italy ($21B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +11.7%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Italy (+6.4% per year) and the United States (-4.6% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of tomato per capita consumption in 2023 were Turkey (138 kg per person), Italy (109 kg per person) and Spain (81 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +6.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Tomatoes

In 2023, global tomato production stood at 188M tons, approximately equating 2022 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 5.7% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 189M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, production remained at a lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a slight increase of the harvested area and mild growth in yield figures.

In value terms, tomato production expanded rapidly to $245.5B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated measured growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by +67.1% against 2014 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the production volume increased by 17%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Production By Country

China (67M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of tomato production, accounting for 36% of total volume. Moreover, tomato production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (21M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Turkey (13M tons), with a 6.9% share.

In China, tomato production increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+1.4% per year) and Turkey (+1.0% per year).

Yield

In 2023, the global average tomato yield contracted slightly to 38 tons per ha, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2022 figures. Overall, the yield, however, continues to indicate slight growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the yield increased by 4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average tomato yield hit record highs at 38 tons per ha in 2022, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

Harvested Area

The global tomato harvested area totaled 5M ha in 2023, approximately mirroring 2022. Overall, the harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 2.3%. The global harvested area peaked at 5.1M ha in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Tomatoes

In 2023, the amount of tomatoes imported worldwide declined to 7.1M tons, falling by -11.2% on 2022. Overall, imports showed a abrupt curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 7%. Global imports peaked at 14M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tomato imports stood at $10.6B in 2023. In general, imports continue to indicate a noticeable slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 4.9%. Global imports peaked at $17.3B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the seven major importers of tomatoes, namely Pakistan, Germany, France, Canada, the UK, Iraq and Russia, represented more than third of total import. The Netherlands (228K tons), El Salvador (221K tons), Poland (216K tons), Ukraine (191K tons), Spain (189K tons) and Saudi Arabia (176K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Ukraine (with a CAGR of +6.6%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($1.8B), the UK ($1.5B) and France ($1.2B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, together comprising 42% of global imports. Canada, Poland, the Netherlands, Russia, Spain, Ukraine, Iraq, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and El Salvador lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

Among the main importing countries, Spain, with a CAGR of +6.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average tomato import price amounted to $1,485 per ton, increasing by 13% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2023, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.6%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($4,105 per ton), while Pakistan ($142 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+10.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Tomatoes

In 2023, approx. 13M tons of tomatoes were exported worldwide; picking up by 11% on the year before. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a mild contraction. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at 16M tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, tomato exports skyrocketed to $18.3B in 2023. Overall, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The global exports peaked at $18.6B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Mexico represented the largest exporter of tomatoes in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 4M tons, which was near 31% of total exports in 2023. It was distantly followed by Morocco (1.4M tons), Turkey (1.2M tons), Iran (1M tons) and the Netherlands (0.9M tons), together creating a 35% share of total exports. The following exporters - Spain (560K tons), Canada (425K tons), France (320K tons), Azerbaijan (281K tons), Portugal (234K tons), Jordan (224K tons), Belgium (205K tons) and the United States (195K tons) - together made up 19% of total exports.

Exports from Mexico increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Azerbaijan (+11.8%), Iran (+7.1%), Morocco (+4.3%), Canada (+2.7%) and Turkey (+2.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Azerbaijan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +11.8% from 2013-2023. Portugal and Jordan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, France (-3.8%), the United States (-7.4%), Belgium (-7.8%), the Netherlands (-8.8%) and Spain (-12.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Mexico (+10 p.p.), Morocco (+4.5 p.p.), Iran (+4.3 p.p.), Turkey (+2.4 p.p.) and Azerbaijan (+1.5 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2013-2023, the share of Belgium (-1.6 p.p.), the Netherlands (-8.5 p.p.) and Spain (-9.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Mexico ($6.1B) remains the largest tomato supplier worldwide, comprising 33% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Morocco ($2.3B), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with an 11% share.

In Mexico, tomato exports increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Morocco (+10.5% per year) and the Netherlands (-5.8% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average tomato export price amounted to $1,425 per ton, growing by 5.3% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2023, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 an increase of 12%. The global export price peaked in 2023 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was France ($2,546 per ton), while Iran ($409 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Jordan (+7.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform