Feb 6, 2025

Trump Administration's Tariff Changes Could Hit Shein Harder Than Temu

The Trump administration's recent move to halt low-cost imports from entering the U.S. tariff-free is anticipated to impact fast fashion giant Shein more severely than its competitor, Temu. According to an analysis by Casey Hall at Reuters, Temu's broader product range and strategic shift in their shipping operations offer a buffer against the new tariffs.

Both Shein and Temu have experienced significant growth in the United States, leveraging the de minimis rule that exempts shipments under $800 from import duties. Recent estimates indicate these Chinese retailers are responsible for over 30% of all daily packages shipped to the U.S. under this provision. However, with tariff regulations tightening under scrutiny during the Biden administration, both companies began adjusting their strategies to become less reliant on the rule.

Temu, owned by PDD Holdings, has been swift in adapting by expanding its semi-managed model, a tactic akin to Amazon's, which entails shipping goods in bulk to overseas warehouses rather than directly to customers. By last March, approximately 20% of Temu's U.S. sales originated from local sellers' inventories, based on estimates from e-commerce market research firm Marketplace Pulse. Furthermore, by year-end, half the goods sold by China-based Temu sellers to the U.S. were first sent to U.S. warehouses.

In contrast, Shein continues to depend heavily on air freight for the swift delivery of its fashion items, a necessity due to its business model focused on rapid trend responsiveness. Despite this, Shein has made efforts to diversify its supply chain, incorporating suppliers from Brazil and Turkey, potentially a proactive measure in response to anticipated regulatory pressures. The company also established operational centers in Illinois, California, and a supply chain hub in Seattle.

Trump's executive order has thrown the express shipping sector into turmoil. Notably, the U.S. Postal Service reversed a recent decision to halt parcel acceptance from China and Hong Kong merely 12 hours after implementing the ban. Analysis from Nomura suggests a potential 60% decline in de minimis shipments to the U.S., impacting American consumers who might face higher costs on orders from Shein, Temu, and even Amazon.

According to IndexBox data, 1.36 billion shipments utilized the de minimis provision in 2024, marking a 36% increase from 2023. Despite predictions of significant short-term disruptions, analyst Rui Ma believes the nimble nature of China's e-commerce firms means they are well-positioned to adjust swiftly and effectively to these changes. "I think there will be real impact, especially in the short term, but it is not catastrophic," Ma stated. "China has the most competitive e-commerce operators and the most advanced supply chain. Short of a total ban or something crazy like that, I think they will be able to figure it out."

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance
1. KEY FINDINGS
2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects
1. MARKET SIZE
2. CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
3. MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4. MOST TRADED PRODUCT
5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
2. PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS
The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed
1. IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS
The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed
1. EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
- United States
- China
- Japan
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- France
- Brazil
- Italy
- Russian Federation
- India
- Canada
- Australia
- Republic of Korea
- Spain
- Mexico
- Indonesia
- Netherlands
- Turkey
- Saudi Arabia
- Switzerland
- Sweden
- Nigeria
- Poland
- Belgium
- Argentina
- Norway
- Austria
- Thailand
- United Arab Emirates
- Colombia
- Denmark
- South Africa
- Malaysia
- Israel
- Singapore
- Egypt
- Philippines
- Finland
- Chile
- Ireland
- Pakistan
- Greece
- Portugal
- Kazakhstan
- Algeria
- Czech Republic
- Qatar
- Peru
- Romania
- Vietnam
LIST OF TABLES
1. Key Findings In 2024
2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
3. Market Value, 2012–2024
4. Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2024
5. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
6. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
7. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
8. Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
9. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
10. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
11. Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024
LIST OF FIGURES
1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
2. Market Value, 2012–2024
3. Consumption, By Country, 2024
4. Market Volume Forecast to 2030
5. Market Value Forecast to 2030
6. Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
7. Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
8. Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
9. Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
10. Production Volume And Growth
11. Exports And Growth
12. Export Prices And Growth
13. Market Size And Growth
14. Per Capita Consumption
15. Imports And Growth
16. Import Prices
17. Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
18. Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
19. Production, By Country, 2024
20. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
21. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
22. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
23. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
24. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
25. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
26. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
27. Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
28. Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
29. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
30. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
31. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
32. Export Prices, 2012–2024