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Turkey - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Report Update: Jun 1, 2025

Turkey - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights

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Nov 2, 2024

Turkey's Strategy to Manage Excessive Wheat Inventories Amid Production Declines

According to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, Turkey is grappling with significant wheat inventories, despite a predicted 2-million-tonne reduction in annual production.

At the close of the 2023-24 marketing year, Turkey's wheat ending stocks were at an unprecedented 5.3 million tonnes. In a bid to alleviate these surplus stocks, the Turkish government had halted wheat imports until mid-October. However, during this suspension, the notable price disparity between domestic and imported wheat ($320/tonne vs. $240/tonne) led local flour and pasta producers to delay utilizing domestic sources, in anticipation of the resumption of imports.

Currently, with the suspension lifted, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) now mandates that millers import 15% of their wheat needs while sourcing 85% from TMO reserves. Market sources suggest this strategy will likely persist through 2024. Notably, the TMO is releasing stocks at prices aligning with international rates, around $235 to $245 per tonne, despite a prior government stance to avoid selling below cost to conserve resources.

Export challenges continue as Turkey faces competition due to limited imports and decreased demand from markets such as Iraq, potentially causing exports to drop by 30% to about 7 million tonnes for this year. Nonetheless, projections indicate that by 2024-25, there will be a significant 43% reduction in ending stocks, bringing them down to 3 million tonnes.

This situation is further complicated by an 11% decrease in domestic wheat production, expected to result in an 18.7 million tonne yield owing to adverse spring weather conditions. Furthermore, IndexBox data reveals that in 2023, Turkey's wheat import volume stood at 11.905 million tonnes, valued at $3.539 billion USD. Of this, Russia accounted for the lion's share of imports at $2.661 billion USD, followed by Ukraine with $730.054 million USD, and Kazakhstan at $53.641 million USD.

The significantly higher import values from Russia and Ukraine underscore Turkey's heavy reliance on these two sources for meeting its wheat demands.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the wheat market in Turkey. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

Product coverage:

  • FCL 15 - Wheat

Country coverage:

  • Turkey

Data coverage:

  • Market volume and value
  • Per Capita consumption
  • Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
  • Trade (exports and imports) in Turkey
  • Export and import prices
  • Market trends, drivers and restraints
  • Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:

  • Take advantage of the latest data
  • Find deeper insights into current market developments
  • Discover vital success factors affecting the market

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

  1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
  2. How to load your idle production capacity
  3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
  4. How to increase your profit margins
  5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
  6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
  7. How to outsource production to other countries
  8. How to prepare your business for global expansion

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional EditionPRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. MARKET STRUCTURE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    3. TRADE BALANCE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    4. PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    5. MARKET FORECAST TO 2035

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORTS

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
    4. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    5. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export

    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)

  8. 8. IMPORTS

    The Largest Import Supplying Countries

    1. IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)

  9. 9. EXPORTS

    The Largest Destinations for Exports

    1. EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

  11. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2024
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    3. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    4. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    5. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012-2024
    6. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012-2024
    7. Import Prices, By Country, 2012-2024
    8. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012-2024
    9. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012-2024
    10. Exports Prices, By Country, 2012-2024

  12. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    2. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    3. Market Structure – Domestic Supply Vs. Imports, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    4. Market Structure – Domestic Supply Vs. Imports, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    5. Trade Balance, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    6. Trade Balance, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    7. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    8. Market Volume Forecast to 2035
    9. Market Value Forecast to 2035
    10. Market Size and Growth, by Product
    11. Average Per Capita Consumption, by Product
    12. Exports and Growth, by Product
    13. Export Prices and Growth, by Product
    14. Production Volume and Growth
    15. Yield and Growth
    16. Exports and Growth
    17. Export Prices and Growth
    18. Market Size and Growth
    19. Per Capita Consumption
    20. Imports and Growth
    21. Import Prices
    22. Production, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    23. Production, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    24. Harvested Area: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    25. Yield: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    26. Imports, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    27. Imports, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    28. Imports, in Physical Terms, by Country, 2024
    29. Imports, in Physical Terms, by Country, 2012-2024
    30. Imports, in Value Terms, by Country, 2012-2024
    31. Import Prices, by Country, 2012-2024
    32. Exports, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    33. Exports, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    34. Exports, in Physical Terms, by Country, 2024
    35. Exports, in Physical Terms, by Country, 2012-2024
    36. Exports, in Value Terms, by Country, 2012-2024
    37. Export Prices, by Country, 2012-2024

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