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U.S. Natural Gas Demand for LNG Exports Sees First Decline
Dec 20, 2024

U.S. Natural Gas Demand for LNG Exports Sees First Decline

The demand for U.S. natural gas used in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production for exports is experiencing its first decline since the country began exporting from the lower 48 states eight years ago. According to a report by Reuters, the contraction arises amidst disruptions and delayed project completions affecting the industry.

Current Sector Dynamics

The United States, which remains the largest exporter of this super-chilled gas, has been a primary supplier to Europe since 2022. Despite Europe's high gas prices, anticipated growth in U.S. natural gas output for 2024 hasn't been realized, leading to concerns over fresh pricing shocks as colder months loom. Notably, indexation of some outputs to global LNG prices has diminished incentives for drillers to ramp up production as gas flow to export plants slacken.

The onset of the first new facility since 2022—Venture Global LNG's 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines export plant in Louisiana—has marked a significant development, although it's not yet alleviating the demand dip.

Outlook and Projects Underway

Despite the downturn, projections depict a bullish stance in U.S. LNG capacity expansion over the next four years, foreseeing capacity burgeoning from 13.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to 24.2 bcfd by 2028. In the near term, capacity is expected to rise progressively to 17.8 bcfd next year and 20.3 bcfd by 2026.

Among the major disruptions influencing 2024's demand decline are interruptions at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas. Routine facility outages, lasting several weeks each, hampered continuous operation except for the month of October.

These setbacks, compounded by construction delays and financial overruns in other projects such as Venture Global's over-budget Plaquemines and the Golden Pass plant in Texas—partnered by Exxon Mobil and QatarEnergy—due to labor shortages and supply chain issues, have played key roles in constricting current outputs.

Nonetheless, anticipations are for an incremental rise in feedgas to the facilities by approximately 2 bcfd next year, per insights from industry experts at Rapidan Energy Group. Reaffirming an optimistic future outlook, Columbia University's Ira Joseph predicts substantial growth over the next five years, propelled by resumed performance improvements and new projects coming online, which are expected to result in a 1% rise in exports this year following a 12% jump in 2023.

With expectations set for faster growth rates resuming in 2025, LNG exports could potentially climb by around 14%, translating to an estimated 13.7 bcfd capacity, according to projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE
    2. CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
    3. MARKET FORECAST TO 2030

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCT

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCT
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
    2. PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY

  8. 8. GLOBAL IMPORTS

    The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. IMPORTS FROM 2012–2024
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  9. 9. GLOBAL EXPORTS

    The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

    1. EXPORTS FROM 2012–2024
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO

  11. 11. COUNTRY PROFILES

    The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

    This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
    • United States
    • China
    • Japan
    • Germany
    • United Kingdom
    • France
    • Brazil
    • Italy
    • Russian Federation
    • India
    • Canada
    • Australia
    • Republic of Korea
    • Spain
    • Mexico
    • Indonesia
    • Netherlands
    • Turkey
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Switzerland
    • Sweden
    • Nigeria
    • Poland
    • Belgium
    • Argentina
    • Norway
    • Austria
    • Thailand
    • United Arab Emirates
    • Colombia
    • Denmark
    • South Africa
    • Malaysia
    • Israel
    • Singapore
    • Egypt
    • Philippines
    • Finland
    • Chile
    • Ireland
    • Pakistan
    • Greece
    • Portugal
    • Kazakhstan
    • Algeria
    • Czech Republic
    • Qatar
    • Peru
    • Romania
    • Vietnam

  12. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2024
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    3. Market Value, 2012–2024
    4. Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2024
    5. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    6. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    7. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    8. Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2012–2024
    9. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    10. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    11. Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2012–2024

  13. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    2. Market Value, 2012–2024
    3. Consumption, By Country, 2024
    4. Market Volume Forecast to 2030
    5. Market Value Forecast to 2030
    6. Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
    7. Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
    8. Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
    9. Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
    10. Production Volume And Growth
    11. Exports And Growth
    12. Export Prices And Growth
    13. Market Size And Growth
    14. Per Capita Consumption
    15. Imports And Growth
    16. Import Prices
    17. Production, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    18. Production, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    19. Production, By Country, 2024
    20. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    21. Imports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    22. Imports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    23. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    24. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    25. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    26. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
    27. Exports, In Physical Terms, 2012–2024
    28. Exports, In Value Terms, 2012–2024
    29. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    30. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    31. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    32. Export Prices, 2012–2024

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