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U.S. - Crude Petroleum Oil - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights
Report Update: Jun 1, 2025

U.S. - Crude Petroleum Oil - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights

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Feb 3, 2025

US Oil Refiners Shift Focus Amid Rising Tariff Challenges

US oil refiners are seeking new sources for crude oil as tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports dramatically increase, according to Bloomberg's report (source). The United States, which saw crude oil exports valued at $117.8 billion in 2023 and increased to $119.6 billion in 2024, faces challenging decisions following President Trump's latest tariff impositions.

As tariffs impose a 10% levy on Canadian oil and a substantial 25% duty on Mexican crude, US refiners will likely turn to Latin America and the Middle East for heavier oil alternatives. This comes while Canada remains the leading oil import source for the US, with an import value of $92.5 billion in 2023, followed by Mexico at $19.8 billion.

Latin American nations such as Brazil and Guyana, along with Middle Eastern countries like Iraq, are considered viable alternatives despite potential logistical hurdles. Iraq, although producing a limited amount of so-called destination-free cargoes, could still contribute to US refinery demands.

The tariffs are expected to lead to a partial rerouting of energy supplies, likely spurring higher transportation costs and potentially shifting Canadian and Mexican crude exports towards Asian markets. Meanwhile, US crude oil imports totaled $165.2 billion in 2023, indicating a significant dependency, particularly from Canada.

In response to the new tariffs, Canadian producers may be forced to lower prices to offset the financial impact. Additionally, US gasoline futures in New York have soared by as much as 6.2%, as these costs might be passed on to consumers at the pumps, causing further economic ripple effects.

While Mexican and Canadian producers navigate these new trade dynamics, they will likely seek alternative markets in Europe and Asia. The impact of US tariffs could provide an unexpected boon to Asian and European refineries, which could see improved conditions in their domestic markets.

Despite challenges, the existing strong trade linkage with Canada underscores the importance of pragmatic logistical strategies to manage the new economic landscape. According to IndexBox's platform, the Netherlands, China, and South Korea were significant destinations for US crude, highlighting the global breadth of US oil trade.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the crude oil market in the U.S.. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

Product coverage:

    Country coverage:

    • United States

    Data coverage:

    • Market volume and value
    • Per Capita consumption
    • Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
    • Trade (exports and imports) in the U.S.
    • Export and import prices
    • Market trends, drivers and restraints
    • Key market players and their profiles

    Reasons to buy this report:

    • Take advantage of the latest data
    • Find deeper insights into current market developments
    • Discover vital success factors affecting the market

    This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

    In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

    1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
    2. How to load your idle production capacity
    3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
    4. How to increase your profit margins
    5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
    6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
    7. How to outsource production to other countries
    8. How to prepare your business for global expansion

    While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

    1. 1. INTRODUCTION

      Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

      1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
      2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
      3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
      4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

    2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

      A Quick Overview of Market Performance

      1. KEY FINDINGS
      2. MARKET TRENDSThis Chapter is Available Only for the Professional EditionPRO

    3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

      Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects

      1. MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
      2. MARKET STRUCTURE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
      3. TRADE BALANCE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
      4. PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
      5. MARKET FORECAST TO 2035

    4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

      Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

      1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
      2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
      3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
      4. MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
      5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORTS

    5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

      Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

      1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
      2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
      3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
      4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

    6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

      Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export

      1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
      2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
      3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
      4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
      5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

    7. 7. PRODUCTION

      The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

      1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)

    8. 8. IMPORTS

      The Largest Import Supplying Countries

      1. IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
      2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)
      3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)

    9. 9. EXPORTS

      The Largest Destinations for Exports

      1. EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
      2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)
      3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)

    10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

      The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

    11. LIST OF TABLES

      1. Key Findings In 2024
      2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      3. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      4. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      5. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
      6. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
      7. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
      8. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
      9. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
      10. Export Prices, By Country, 2012–2024

    12. LIST OF FIGURES

      1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      2. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      3. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      4. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      5. Trade Balance, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      6. Trade Balance, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      7. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      8. Market Volume Forecast to 2035
      9. Market Value Forecast to 2035
      10. Market Size and Growth, By Product
      11. Average Per Capita Consumption, By Product
      12. Exports and Growth, By Product
      13. Export Prices and Growth, By Product
      14. Production Volume and Growth
      15. Exports and Growth
      16. Export Prices and Growth
      17. Market Size and Growth
      18. Per Capita Consumption
      19. Imports and Growth
      20. Import Prices
      21. Production, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      22. Production, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      23. Imports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      24. Imports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      25. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
      26. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
      27. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
      28. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
      29. Exports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      30. Exports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
      31. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
      32. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
      33. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
      34. Export Prices, By Country, 2012–2024

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