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U.S. Petroleum Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2030
Report Update: Jun 1, 2025

U.S. Petroleum Market. Analysis And Forecast to 2030

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Nov 4, 2024

Petroleum Exports From U.S. Decline to $122.7 Billion in 2023

U.S. Petroleum Exports

After two years of growth, shipments abroad of petroleum decreased by -1% to 189M tons in 2023. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 7%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at 213M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, petroleum exports reduced dramatically to $122.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2023. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 58%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $146.1B, and then fell dramatically in the following year.U.S. Petroleum Exports By Country (Billion USD)

COUNTRYExport Value of Petroleum in U.S. (billion USD)
20132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
Mexico19.319.615.416.021.729.428.317.228.341.136.8
Canada14.515.39.98.79.212.810.67.411.417.114.7
Chile5.55.03.42.63.24.13.52.73.99.26.0
Panama5.45.53.22.02.32.52.92.43.26.15.1
Brazil4.95.52.73.86.76.58.86.38.311.74.7
Peru3.02.72.01.72.53.02.82.03.16.04.4
Netherlands9.87.74.33.22.93.52.81.82.43.64.2
Colombia5.36.14.42.82.22.53.01.83.15.43.1
Others51.449.932.725.632.939.130.720.328.945.943.7
Total11911778.166.483.610393.461.892.5146123

Exports by Country

Mexico (50M tons) was the main destination for petroleum exports from the United States, with a 26% share of total exports. Moreover, petroleum exports to Mexico exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Canada (20M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Brazil (8.8M tons), with a 4.7% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume to Mexico stood at +7.6%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Canada (+0.5% per year) and Brazil (+1.9% per year).

In value terms, Mexico ($36.8B) remains the key foreign market for petroleum exports from the United States, comprising 30% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Canada ($14.7B), with a 12% share of total exports. It was followed by Chile, with a 4.9% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value to Mexico amounted to +6.7%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Canada (+0.1% per year) and Chile (+1.0% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2023, the petroleum price amounted to $651 per ton (FOB, US), shrinking by -15.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a slight curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 an increase of 54%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $767 per ton, and then reduced markedly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Peru ($815 per ton), while the average price for exports to India ($195 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to China (+0.8%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the petroleum market in the U.S.. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

Product coverage:

  • NAICS 324110 - Petroleum refineries

Companies mentioned:

  • Chevron Corporation
  • Exxon Mobil Corporation
  • Valero Energy Corporation
  • Koch Industries
  • Hollyfrontier Corporation
  • Calumet Specialty Products Partners
  • United Refining Company
  • Western Refining
  • Alon USA Energy
  • Pbf Energy Company
  • Pbf Energy
  • Cvr Energy
  • Murphy Oil Usa
  • Chc McPherson Refinery
  • BP America
  • Delek US Holdings
  • Marathon Petroleum Corporation
  • Placid Refining Company
  • Cvr Refining
  • Northern Tier Energy
  • Paulsboro Refining Company
  • United Refining
  • Valero Refining-New Orleans
  • Shell Petroleum
  • Exxonmobil Oil Corporation
  • Placid Holding Company
  • The Sinclair Companies
  • United Acquisition Corp.
  • Alon Refining Krotz Springs
  • Pbf Holding Company
  • Phillips 66 Company
  • Alon USA Partners
  • BP Corporation North America

Country coverage:

  • United States

Data coverage:

  • Market volume and value
  • Per Capita consumption
  • Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
  • Trade (exports and imports) in the U.S.
  • Export and import prices
  • Market trends, drivers and restraints
  • Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:

  • Take advantage of the latest data
  • Find deeper insights into current market developments
  • Discover vital success factors affecting the market

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

  1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
  2. How to load your idle production capacity
  3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
  4. How to increase your profit margins
  5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
  6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
  7. How to outsource production to other countries
  8. How to prepare your business for global expansion

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

  1. 1. INTRODUCTION

    Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

    1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
    2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
    3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
    4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

  2. 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    A Quick Overview of Market Performance

    1. KEY FINDINGS
    2. MARKET TRENDSThis Chapter is Available Only for the Professional EditionPRO

  3. 3. MARKET OVERVIEW

    Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects

    1. MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. MARKET STRUCTURE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    3. TRADE BALANCE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    4. PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    5. MARKET FORECAST TO 2035

  4. 4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

    Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

    1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
    2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
    3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
    4. MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORTS

  5. 5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

    Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

    1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
    3. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
    4. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

  6. 6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

    Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export

    1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
    2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
    3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
    4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
    5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

  7. 7. PRODUCTION

    The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

    1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)

  8. 8. IMPORTS

    The Largest Import Supplying Countries

    1. IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)
    3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)

  9. 9. EXPORTS

    The Largest Destinations for Exports

    1. EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024) AND FORECAST (2025–2035)
    2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)
    3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2024)

  10. 10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

    The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

  11. LIST OF TABLES

    1. Key Findings In 2024
    2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    3. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    4. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    5. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    6. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    7. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
    8. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    9. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    10. Export Prices, By Country, 2012–2024

  12. LIST OF FIGURES

    1. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    2. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    3. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    4. Market Structure – Domestic Supply vs. Imports, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    5. Trade Balance, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    6. Trade Balance, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    7. Per Capita Consumption: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    8. Market Volume Forecast to 2035
    9. Market Value Forecast to 2035
    10. Market Size and Growth, By Product
    11. Average Per Capita Consumption, By Product
    12. Exports and Growth, By Product
    13. Export Prices and Growth, By Product
    14. Production Volume and Growth
    15. Exports and Growth
    16. Export Prices and Growth
    17. Market Size and Growth
    18. Per Capita Consumption
    19. Imports and Growth
    20. Import Prices
    21. Production, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    22. Production, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    23. Imports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    24. Imports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    25. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    26. Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    27. Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    28. Import Prices, By Country, 2012–2024
    29. Exports, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    30. Exports, In Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2024) and Forecast (2025–2035)
    31. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2024
    32. Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    33. Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2012–2024
    34. Export Prices, By Country, 2012–2024

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