Worldwide Virgin Olive Oil Market Expected to Reach 3.9M tons and $24.4B by 2030

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The global demand for virgin olive oil is expected to drive market growth, with a forecasted CAGR of +2.0% in volume and +4.1% in value from 2023 to 2030. This growth trend indicates a positive outlook for the market, reaching 3.9M tons in volume and $24.4B in value by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for virgin olive oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 3.9M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $24.4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Virgin Olive Oil

In 2023, approx. 3.4M tons of virgin olive oil were consumed worldwide; remaining stable against the year before. In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 3.7M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global virgin olive oil market value surged to $18.4B in 2023, picking up by 30% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, the total consumption indicated measured growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption increased by +60.1% against 2019 indices. Global consumption peaked in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

Spain (1.2M tons) remains the largest virgin olive oil consuming country worldwide, accounting for 34% of total volume. Moreover, virgin olive oil consumption in Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Italy (459K tons), threefold. The United States (267K tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.8% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of volume in Spain totaled -1.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Italy (-0.1% per year) and the United States (+3.3% per year).

In value terms, Spain ($6.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Italy ($3.1B). It was followed by the United States.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value in Spain totaled +2.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (+0.2% per year) and the United States (+6.5% per year).

In 2023, the highest levels of virgin olive oil per capita consumption was registered in Spain (25 kg per person), followed by Greece (12 kg per person), Italy (7.8 kg per person) and Morocco (4.8 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of virgin olive oil was estimated at 0.4 kg per person.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the virgin olive oil per capita consumption in Spain totaled -1.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Greece (-1.0% per year) and Italy (+0.1% per year).

Production

World Production of Virgin Olive Oil

In 2023, global production of virgin olive oil reduced slightly to 3.4M tons, waning by -4% on the previous year. Over the period under review, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 51% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 3.7M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, virgin olive oil production soared to $18.4B in 2023 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a buoyant increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by +67.9% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the production volume increased by 89%. Global production peaked in 2023 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Production By Country

Spain (1.5M tons) remains the largest virgin olive oil producing country worldwide, accounting for 43% of total volume. Moreover, virgin olive oil production in Spain exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Italy (337K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Tunisia (314K tons), with a 9.2% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Spain amounted to -1.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (-3.1% per year) and Tunisia (+5.2% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Virgin Olive Oil

Global virgin olive oil imports dropped dramatically to 1.6M tons in 2023, with a decrease of -15.9% compared with 2022 figures. Overall, total imports indicated prominent growth from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports decreased by -24.1% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 61%. Global imports peaked at 2.1M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, virgin olive oil imports surged to $9.8B in 2023. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a prominent increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +9.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, imports increased by +57.7% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when imports increased by 62% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2023 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of virgin olive oil imports in 2023 were Italy (364K tons), the United States (257K tons) and Spain (180K tons), together finishing at 50% of total import. France (110K tons) held a 6.8% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Portugal (4.9%). Brazil (69K tons), Turkey (62K tons), Germany (55K tons), the UK (39K tons) and Japan (38K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +77.3%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest virgin olive oil importing markets worldwide were Italy ($2.3B), the United States ($1.6B) and Spain ($1B), with a combined 51% share of global imports. France, Brazil, Portugal, Germany, the UK, Japan and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +73.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average virgin olive oil import price amounted to $6,117 per ton, growing by 43% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a noticeable increase from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, virgin olive oil import price increased by +96.2% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Brazil ($7,527 per ton), while Turkey ($3,148 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+7.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Virgin Olive Oil

Global virgin olive oil exports shrank significantly to 1.6M tons in 2023, waning by -21% against 2022 figures. In general, total exports indicated a perceptible increase from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports decreased by -23.6% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 2.1M tons. From 2021 to 2023, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, virgin olive oil exports rose notably to $9.6B in 2023. Overall, total exports indicated buoyant growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +9.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, exports increased by +61.5% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 41% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2023, Spain (466K tons), distantly followed by Tunisia (277K tons), Italy (241K tons), Greece (174K tons), Portugal (150K tons) and Turkey (109K tons) represented the key exporters of virgin olive oil, together creating 89% of total exports. Syrian Arab Republic (47K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Syrian Arab Republic (with a CAGR of +9.9%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest virgin olive oil supplying countries worldwide were Spain ($3.1B), Italy ($1.9B) and Greece ($1.2B), together comprising 65% of global exports. Tunisia, Portugal, Turkey and Syrian Arab Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

Among the main exporting countries, Turkey, with a CAGR of +14.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average virgin olive oil export price stood at $6,031 per ton in 2023, picking up by 41% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated a temperate increase from 2013 to 2023: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, virgin olive oil export price increased by +93.7% against 2020 indices. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($7,814 per ton), while Syrian Arab Republic ($2,658 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+6.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform