Global Whey Market to Reach $27B by 2030, with CAGR of +4.1%

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Driven by high demand for whey globally, the whey market is anticipated to expand with a CAGR of +1.7% in volume and +4.1% in value from 2023 to 2030. This growth trend is expected to elevate the market volume to 20M tons and the market value to $27B by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for whey worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 20M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $27B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Whey

After four years of growth, consumption of whey decreased by -12% to 17M tons in 2023. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 20M tons, and then declined in the following year.

The global whey market value reduced markedly to $20.4B in 2023, falling by -19.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, saw perceptible growth. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $25.4B, and then shrank markedly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were Italy (5.9M tons), Germany (4.4M tons) and Denmark (1.5M tons), together comprising 67% of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Denmark (with a CAGR of +17.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest whey markets worldwide were Italy ($5.3B), Germany ($5B) and Denmark ($3.4B), with a combined 67% share of the global market.

Italy, with a CAGR of +21.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2023, the highest levels of whey per capita consumption was registered in Denmark (253 kg per person), followed by Italy (99 kg per person), Germany (53 kg per person) and the Netherlands (47 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of whey was estimated at 2.2 kg per person.

In Denmark, whey per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +16.6% over the period from 2013-2023. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (+3.2% per year) and Germany (+0.5% per year).

Production

World Production of Whey

In 2023, production of whey decreased by -12.6% to 17M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a four-year rising trend. Overall, the total production indicated tangible growth from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by +43.8% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 with an increase of 33% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 20M tons, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, whey production shrank sharply to $20.1B in 2023 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, posted a moderate increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the production volume increased by 52% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $25.4B, and then reduced rapidly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were Italy (6M tons), Germany (4.4M tons) and Denmark (1.4M tons), together accounting for 69% of global production.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Denmark (with a CAGR of +16.5%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Whey

In 2023, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of whey, when their volume decreased by -7.8% to 3.4M tons. Over the period under review, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 7.5%. Global imports peaked at 3.7M tons in 2022, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, whey imports fell significantly to $3.7B in 2023. Overall, imports showed a pronounced decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 27% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at $4.6B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

The Netherlands (664K tons), China (655K tons) and Germany (463K tons) represented roughly 52% of total imports in 2023. France (136K tons), Indonesia (133K tons), Italy (101K tons), Denmark (99K tons), Malaysia (85K tons), Thailand (71K tons), Vietnam (69K tons), the UK (56K tons), the Czech Republic (56K tons) and Belgium (52K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Denmark (with a CAGR of +13.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($839M), the Netherlands ($462M) and Indonesia ($216M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2023, with a combined 41% share of global imports. Germany, France, Denmark, Malaysia, Thailand, the UK, Vietnam, Italy, Belgium and the Czech Republic lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

Denmark, with a CAGR of +7.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average whey import price stood at $1,086 per ton in 2023, declining by -10.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a slight reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average import price increased by 18%. Global import price peaked at $1,280 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Indonesia ($1,633 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($249 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+3.8%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Whey

In 2023, shipments abroad of whey decreased by -10.6% to 3.1M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. In general, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 8.7%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 3.6M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, whey exports shrank significantly to $3.5B in 2023. Over the period under review, exports showed a mild contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 26%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs at $4.4B in 2022, and then dropped sharply in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2023, the United States (491K tons) and Germany (403K tons) represented the main exporters of wheyin the world, together constituting 29% of total exports. France (260K tons) held an 8.4% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the Netherlands (8.1%), Italy (6.5%) and Poland (6.5%). Ireland (136K tons), Austria (120K tons), Belgium (116K tons), Belarus (99K tons), the Czech Republic (77K tons), Spain (73K tons) and Canada (58K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Ireland (with a CAGR of +10.1%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest whey supplying countries worldwide were the United States ($568M), Germany ($519M) and France ($381M), with a combined 41% share of global exports. The Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, Poland, Austria, Belarus, Spain, the Czech Republic, Canada and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

Ireland, with a CAGR of +5.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average whey export price amounted to $1,143 per ton, reducing by -10.6% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a noticeable decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the average export price increased by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $1,408 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Ireland ($1,913 per ton), while Belgium ($334 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+14.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform