Africa: Market for Flaked or Rolled Cereals 2024

Market Size for Flaked or Rolled Cereals in Africa

The African flaked or rolled cereal market rose slightly to $X in 2022, with an increase of 3.9% against the previous year. The total consumption indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -5.2% against 2020 indices. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production of Flaked or Rolled Cereals in Africa

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal production amounted to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total production indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -5.4% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Exports of Flaked or Rolled Cereals

Exports in Africa

For the third year in a row, Africa recorded growth in shipments abroad of flaked or rolled cereals, which increased by 57% to X tons in 2022. In general, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 100% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal exports surged to $X in 2022. Overall, exports, however, recorded a perceptible curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 43% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Botswana was the main exporter of flaked or rolled cereals in Africa, with the volume of exports resulting at X tons, which was near 53% of total exports in 2022. South Africa (X tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Sudan (X tons) and Swaziland (X tons). All these countries together took near 35% share of total exports. The following exporters - Egypt (X tons), Morocco (X tons) and Rwanda (X tons) - each finished at a 6.1% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to flaked or rolled cereal exports from Botswana stood at +65.8%. At the same time, Morocco (+84.7%), Swaziland (+57.6%), Rwanda (+50.8%) and Sudan (+8.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Morocco emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +84.7% from 2012-2022. By contrast, South Africa (-6.4%) and Egypt (-14.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Botswana (+52 p.p.), Swaziland (+5.2 p.p.), Sudan (+3 p.p.), Morocco (+1.9 p.p.) and Rwanda (+1.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Egypt and South Africa saw its share reduced by -9% and -22.6% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest flaked or rolled cereal supplier in Africa, comprising 47% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Botswana ($X), with a 22% share of total exports. It was followed by Swaziland, with a 6.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in South Africa totaled -5.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Botswana (+61.8% per year) and Swaziland (+57.6% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in Africa amounted to $X per ton, falling by -10.1% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a noticeable descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 40%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $X per ton. From 2018 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Rwanda ($X per ton), while Botswana ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Rwanda (+13.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports of Flaked or Rolled Cereals

Imports in Africa

Flaked or rolled cereal imports contracted rapidly to X tons in 2022, which is down by -38.3% on the year before. Overall, imports, however, saw a moderate expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 275%. The volume of import peaked at X tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal imports fell sharply to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw a remarkable increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 114% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $X. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

In 2022, South Africa (X tons), Ethiopia (X tons), Ghana (X tons), Cote d'Ivoire (X tons), Morocco (X tons) and Nigeria (X tons) was the major importer of flaked or rolled cereals in Africa, creating 67% of total import. Egypt (X tons), Algeria (X tons), Kenya (X tons), Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons), Somalia (X tons) and Liberia (X tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Morocco (with a CAGR of +70.5%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Ghana ($X), South Africa ($X) and Cote d'Ivoire ($X) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 36% share of total imports. Morocco, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Egypt, Somalia, Algeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia and Kenya lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 42%.

Morocco, with a CAGR of +57.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in Africa amounted to $X per ton, shrinking by -8.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a moderate expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the import price increased by 68%. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Somalia ($X per ton), while Ethiopia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kenya (+6.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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