Africa: Durum Wheat Market 2025

Durum Wheat Market Size in Africa

In 2022, the African durum wheat market decreased by -10.8% to $X for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Overall, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Durum Wheat Production in Africa

In value terms, durum wheat production fell to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a noticeable downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 22% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $X. From 2014 to 2022, production growth remained at a lower figure.

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Egypt (X tons), Ethiopia (X tons) and Morocco (X tons), together comprising 71% of total production. Algeria, South Africa, Tunisia and Sudan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Sudan (with a CAGR of +7.4%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the average yield of durum wheat in Africa declined to X tons per ha, with a decrease of -8.3% on the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the yield increased by 19% against the previous year. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of X tons per ha, and then reduced in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of durum wheat production in Africa rose modestly to X ha, growing by 1.8% compared with 2021 figures. In general, the harvested area, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 8.6%. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of X ha. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the durum wheat harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Durum Wheat Exports

Exports in Africa

In 2022, overseas shipments of durum wheat increased by 45% to X tons, rising for the second consecutive year after three years of decline. Overall, exports saw a temperate expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 270%. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, durum wheat exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. In general, exports enjoyed a strong increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 210% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $X. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

South Africa represented the key exporter of durum wheat in Africa, with the volume of exports accounting for X tons, which was approx. 47% of total exports in 2022. Mozambique (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 21% share, followed by Swaziland (13%) and Mauritius (8.9%). The following exporters - Tunisia (X tons) and Senegal (X tons) - together made up 7.4% of total exports.

South Africa experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of durum wheat. At the same time, Senegal (+113.7%), Swaziland (+75.8%), Mauritius (+22.2%) and Mozambique (+19.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Senegal emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +113.7% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Tunisia (-3.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Mozambique (+16 p.p.), Swaziland (+12 p.p.), Mauritius (+7 p.p.) and Senegal (+3.1 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Tunisia (-4.9 p.p.) and South Africa (-22.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, South Africa ($X), Mozambique ($X) and Mauritius ($X) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 85% of total exports. Swaziland, Tunisia and Senegal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 12%.

Senegal, with a CAGR of +59.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in Africa stood at $X per ton in 2022, rising by 3% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.1%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the export price increased by 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices reached the maximum in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mozambique ($X per ton), while Swaziland ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Africa (+4.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Durum Wheat Imports

Imports in Africa

After two years of growth, supplies from abroad of durum wheat decreased by -4% to X tons in 2022. Total imports indicated a pronounced expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 137%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, durum wheat imports shrank markedly to $X in 2022. Total imports indicated a temperate increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +14.8% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 109%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $X in 2021, and then fell remarkably in the following year.

Imports by Country

Egypt dominates imports structure, finishing at X tons, which was approx. 66% of total imports in 2022. Algeria (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 7.7% share, followed by Ethiopia (7%) and Tunisia (6.1%). Morocco (X tons), Senegal (X tons) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to durum wheat imports into Egypt stood at +3.1%. At the same time, Senegal (+44.9%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (+44.5%), Tunisia (+11.2%) and Ethiopia (+8.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Senegal emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Africa, with a CAGR of +44.9% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Morocco (-1.8%) and Algeria (-2.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Tunisia (+3.3 p.p.), Ethiopia (+2.9 p.p.), Senegal (+2.6 p.p.) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (+1.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while Morocco and Algeria saw its share reduced by -2.4% and -5% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Egypt ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported durum wheat in Africa, comprising 56% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Ethiopia ($X), with a 9.7% share of total imports. It was followed by Algeria, with a 9.7% share.

In Egypt, durum wheat imports increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Ethiopia (+12.8% per year) and Algeria (-0.7% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in Africa amounted to $X per ton, falling by -11.5% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the import price increased by 39% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Morocco ($X per ton), while Democratic Republic of the Congo ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ethiopia (+3.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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