Africa: Ethanol Market 2024

Ethanol Market Size in Africa

The African ethanol market totaled $X in 2022, with an increase of 3.7% against the previous year. Overall, consumption posted a perceptible expansion. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Ethanol Production in Africa

In value terms, ethanol production expanded to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a tangible increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 34%. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum level at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Ethanol Exports

Exports in Africa

Ethanol exports reduced to X litres in 2022, which is down by -2% against 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 22%. The volume of export peaked at X litres in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, ethanol exports totaled $X in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

South Africa represented the largest exporter of ethyl alcohol in Africa, with the volume of exports reaching X litres, which was near 67% of total exports in 2022. Swaziland (X litres) held an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Sudan (8%). Uganda (X litres), Egypt (X litres) and Mauritius (X litres) held a little share of total exports.

Exports from South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Uganda (+54.0%), Mauritius (+9.4%), Swaziland (+5.6%) and Sudan (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Uganda emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +54.0% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Egypt (-8.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of South Africa, Uganda and Swaziland increased by +12, +3.7 and +2.3 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest ethanol supplier in Africa, comprising 65% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Swaziland ($X), with a 9.4% share of total exports. It was followed by Sudan, with a 7% share.

In South Africa, ethanol exports expanded at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Swaziland (+2.9% per year) and Sudan (-0.4% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in Africa stood at $X per litre in 2022, surging by 14% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of export peaked at $X per litre in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Egypt ($X per litre), while Swaziland ($X per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Egypt (+1.2%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Ethanol Imports

Imports in Africa

In 2022, supplies from abroad of ethyl alcohol decreased by -0.9% to X litres, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X litres in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol imports expanded notably to $X in 2022. Total imports indicated temperate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -6.5% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 29%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

Nigeria was the main importing country with an import of around X litres, which finished at 36% of total imports. Ghana (X litres) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Cote d'Ivoire (X litres), Cameroon (X litres) and Angola (X litres). All these countries together took near 36% share of total imports. The following importers - Rwanda (X litres), Democratic Republic of the Congo (X litres), Kenya (X litres), Tanzania (X litres), Togo (X litres), Madagascar (X litres) and Mozambique (X litres) - together made up 19% of total imports.

Nigeria experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of ethyl alcohol. At the same time, Rwanda (+53.4%), Democratic Republic of the Congo (+26.8%), Cote d'Ivoire (+14.6%), Ghana (+10.3%), Kenya (+10.2%), Cameroon (+5.9%), Angola (+3.6%), Madagascar (+3.1%) and Togo (+2.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Rwanda emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Africa, with a CAGR of +53.4% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Mozambique (-4.1%) and Tanzania (-4.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Ghana (+8.2 p.p.), Cote d'Ivoire (+4.8 p.p.), Rwanda (+3.9 p.p.), Democratic Republic of the Congo (+2.8 p.p.), Cameroon (+2.1 p.p.) and Kenya (+1.5 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of Tanzania (-2.5 p.p.) and Nigeria (-10 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Nigeria ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported ethyl alcohol in Africa, comprising 47% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Ghana ($X), with a 9.5% share of total imports. It was followed by Angola, with a 6.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Nigeria amounted to +2.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Ghana (+4.5% per year) and Angola (+3.1% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in Africa amounted to $X per litre, with an increase of 7.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the import price increased by 21%. Over the period under review, import prices attained the maximum at $X per litre in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Rwanda ($X per litre), while Togo ($X per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Togo (+3.5%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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