Africa: Nitrogen Market 2024

Nitrogen Market Size in Africa

The African nitrogen market was finally on the rise to reach $X in 2021, after two years of decline. The total consumption indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, consumption decreased by -7.0% against 2018 indices. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2021, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Nitrogen Production in Africa

In value terms, nitrogen production rose slightly to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. The total production indicated a measured expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, production decreased by -8.9% against 2018 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the production volume increased by 21%. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2021, production failed to regain momentum.

Nitrogen Exports

Exports in Africa

In 2021, overseas shipments of nitrogen decreased by -16.3% to X cubic meters, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, exports showed a abrupt setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 129% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X cubic meters. From 2015 to 2021, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, nitrogen exports dropped slightly to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, exports saw a deep downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 58% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $X. From 2015 to 2021, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

South Africa dominates exports structure, recording X cubic meters, which was approx. 78% of total exports in 2021. The following exporters - Egypt (X cubic meters), Tunisia (X cubic meters), Algeria (X cubic meters) and Zambia (X cubic meters) - together made up 14% of total exports.

Exports from South Africa decreased at an average annual rate of -12.4% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, Algeria (+41.1%) and Tunisia (+7.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Algeria emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +41.1% from 2012-2021. Zambia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Egypt (-9.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Algeria (+3.6 p.p.) and Tunisia (+3.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while South Africa saw its share reduced by -9.3% from 2012 to 2021, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest nitrogen supplying countries in Africa were South Africa ($X), Tunisia ($X) and Algeria ($X), with a combined 58% share of total exports.

Algeria, with a CAGR of +38.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in Africa stood at $X per cubic meter in 2021, with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Export price indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2021: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.8% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, nitrogen export price increased by +77.6% against 2019 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 an increase of 51% against the previous year. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $X per cubic meter. From 2017 to 2021, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Tunisia ($X per cubic meter), while Egypt ($X per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tunisia (+7.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Nitrogen Imports

Imports in Africa

In 2021, purchases abroad of nitrogen was finally on the rise to reach X cubic meters after two years of decline. Overall, imports saw tangible growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 160%. As a result, imports attained the peak of X cubic meters. From 2019 to 2021, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, nitrogen imports soared to $X in 2021. In general, imports, however, recorded a slight reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 72% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $X. From 2019 to 2021, the growth of imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

The purchases of the five major importers of nitrogen, namely Kenya, South Africa, Egypt, Namibia and Mozambique, represented more than two-thirds of total import. The following importers - Mali (X cubic meters), Madagascar (X cubic meters), Guinea (X cubic meters), Senegal (X cubic meters), Botswana (X cubic meters), Algeria (X cubic meters), Morocco (X cubic meters) and Zambia (X cubic meters) - together made up 17% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2021, the biggest increases were recorded for Guinea (with a CAGR of +127.8%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Kenya ($X), Morocco ($X) and Algeria ($X) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2021, with a combined 28% share of total imports. These countries were followed by South Africa, Mozambique, Egypt, Namibia, Senegal, Guinea, Mali, Botswana, Madagascar and Zambia, which together accounted for a further 27%.

Among the main importing countries, Guinea, with a CAGR of +66.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2021, the import price in Africa amounted to $X per cubic meter, picking up by 12% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a noticeable contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 an increase of 47% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices attained the peak figure at $X per cubic meter in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2021, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Morocco ($X per cubic meter), while Namibia ($X per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Morocco (+9.5%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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