Africa: Urea Market 2024

Urea Market Size in Africa

After three years of growth, the African urea market decreased by -9.5% to $X in 2022. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a pronounced decrease. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Urea Production in Africa

In value terms, urea production stood at $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total production indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +46.5% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 50%. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Urea Exports

Exports in Africa

After three years of decline, overseas shipments of urea increased by 31% to X tons in 2022. Over the period under review, exports enjoyed a prominent expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 80%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, urea exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. In general, exports continue to indicate a buoyant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 60%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

Egypt (X tons) and Algeria (X tons) represented roughly 73% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Nigeria (X tons), achieving a 22% share of total exports. The following exporters - Libya (X tons) and South Africa (X tons) - each recorded a 3.5% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +37.2%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Egypt ($X), Nigeria ($X) and Algeria ($X) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 95% share of total exports.

Among the main exporting countries, Nigeria, with a CAGR of +44.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in Africa amounted to $X per ton, approximately equating the previous year. Export price indicated a slight increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, urea export price increased by +102.6% against 2017 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the export price increased by 61% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Nigeria ($X per ton), while Algeria ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nigeria (+5.4%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Urea Imports

Imports in Africa

In 2022, urea imports in Africa surged to X tons, growing by 17% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, urea imports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Overall, imports enjoyed pronounced growth. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

South Africa represented the key importer of urea in Africa, with the volume of imports accounting for X tons, which was near 29% of total imports in 2022. Tanzania (X tons) took a 12% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Senegal (10%), Djibouti (7.3%), Sudan (4.9%) and Morocco (4.6%). The following importers - Cote d'Ivoire (X tons), Zambia (X tons), Zimbabwe (X tons), Kenya (X tons), Mozambique (X tons), Togo (X tons) and Ghana (X tons) - together made up 21% of total imports.

South Africa experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of urea. At the same time, Togo (+34.9%), Zimbabwe (+26.4%), Ghana (+23.9%), Tanzania (+23.7%), Kenya (+15.9%), Sudan (+14.7%), Morocco (+9.8%), Senegal (+9.7%) and Zambia (+8.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Togo emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Africa, with a CAGR of +34.9% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Cote d'Ivoire (-2.2%), Mozambique (-5.2%) and Djibouti (-5.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Tanzania (+11 p.p.), Senegal (+5.3 p.p.), Sudan (+3.4 p.p.), Zimbabwe (+3.2 p.p.), Kenya (+2.5 p.p.), Morocco (+2.4 p.p.), Zambia (+1.7 p.p.) and Togo (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while Mozambique, Cote d'Ivoire, South Africa and Djibouti saw its share reduced by -2.1%, -2.2%, -5.5% and -8.3% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported urea in Africa, comprising 44% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Tanzania ($X), with a 10% share of total imports. It was followed by Senegal, with a 6.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in South Africa stood at +6.1%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Tanzania (+24.2% per year) and Senegal (+8.1% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in Africa stood at $X per ton in 2022, jumping by 30% against the previous year. Import price indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, urea import price increased by +75.0% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 35% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Togo ($X per ton), while Ghana ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Togo (+6.6%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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