Africa: Vaccine Market 2024

Vaccine Market Size in Africa

In 2022, the African vaccine market decreased by -18.3% to $X for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. In general, consumption, however, recorded a prominent expansion. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2021, and then reduced dramatically in the following year.

Vaccine Production in Africa

In value terms, vaccine production reached $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production posted prominent growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the production volume increased by 96%. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Vaccine Exports

Exports in Africa

In 2022, shipments abroad of vaccines for human medicine decreased by -11.5% to X tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Over the period under review, exports showed a abrupt slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 97% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of X tons. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, vaccine exports reduced remarkably to $X in 2022. In general, exports showed a mild decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 94% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $X. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

South Africa was the key exporter of vaccines for human medicine in Africa, with the volume of exports resulting at X tons, which was approx. 47% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Kenya (X tons), Botswana (X tons) and Swaziland (X tons), together constituting a 36% share of total exports. The following exporters - Tunisia (X tons), Uganda (X tons) and Ethiopia (X tons) - together made up 10% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to vaccine exports from South Africa stood at +1.3%. At the same time, Botswana (+51.1%), Tunisia (+46.9%), Ethiopia (+31.7%), Kenya (+13.6%) and Uganda (+6.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Botswana emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +51.1% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Swaziland (-24.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. South Africa (+24 p.p.), Kenya (+15 p.p.), Botswana (+10 p.p.), Tunisia (+4.2 p.p.), Uganda (+2.7 p.p.) and Ethiopia (+2.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Swaziland saw its share reduced by -62.5% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, the largest vaccine supplying countries in Africa were Kenya ($X), South Africa ($X) and Uganda ($X), with a combined 68% share of total exports. Swaziland, Tunisia, Botswana and Ethiopia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Tunisia, with a CAGR of +27.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in Africa amounted to $X per ton, reducing by -16.4% against the previous year. Export price indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, vaccine export price increased by +31.0% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the export price increased by 57% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $X per ton, and then contracted rapidly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Uganda ($X per ton), while Botswana ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Swaziland (+7.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Vaccine Imports

Imports in Africa

After three years of growth, supplies from abroad of vaccines for human medicine decreased by -20.9% to X tons in 2022. In general, imports, however, showed buoyant growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 60% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of X tons, and then contracted markedly in the following year.

In value terms, vaccine imports shrank notably to $X in 2022. Overall, imports, however, recorded a prominent increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 62% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $X, and then dropped notably in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Nigeria (X tons) and South Africa (X tons) were the major importers of vaccines for human medicine in Africa, together mixing up 34% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Ghana (X tons), Ethiopia (X tons), Libya (X tons), Egypt (X tons) and Algeria (X tons), together creating a 29% share of total imports. The following importers - Morocco (X tons), Democratic Republic of the Congo (X tons), Kenya (X tons), Zimbabwe (X tons), Tanzania (X tons) and Zambia (X tons) - together made up 17% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Libya (with a CAGR of +27.6%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Nigeria ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported vaccines for human medicine in Africa, comprising 27% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Algeria ($X), with a 9.3% share of total imports. It was followed by South Africa, with a 9.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Nigeria totaled +27.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Algeria (+26.0% per year) and South Africa (+6.9% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in Africa amounted to $X per ton, stabilizing at the previous year. Import price indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +5.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, vaccine import price increased by +74.8% against 2012 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 an increase of 27%. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Algeria ($X per ton), while Morocco ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Algeria (+12.2%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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