Africa: Wheat Market 2025

Wheat Market Size in Africa

In 2022, the African wheat market increased by 9.5% to $X, rising for the sixth year in a row after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The level of consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Wheat Production in Africa

In value terms, wheat production stood at $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the production volume increased by 76% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2014 to 2022, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Egypt (X tons), Ethiopia (X tons) and Morocco (X tons), with a combined 71% share of total production. Algeria, South Africa, Tunisia and Sudan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Sudan (with a CAGR of +7.4%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The average wheat yield reduced to X tons per ha in 2022, waning by -8.2% on the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the yield increased by 19% against the previous year. As a result, the yield attained the peak level of X tons per ha, and then fell in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

The wheat harvested area stood at X ha in 2022, picking up by 1.8% compared with 2021. In general, the harvested area, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the harvested area increased by 8.6%. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of X ha. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the wheat harvested area remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Wheat Exports

Exports in Africa

For the fourth consecutive year, Africa recorded growth in overseas shipments of wheat, which increased by 63% to X tons in 2022. In general, exports continue to indicate a remarkable increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 82% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, wheat exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded prominent growth. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

South Africa prevails in exports structure, recording X tons, which was near 89% of total exports in 2022. The following exporters - Liberia (X tons) and Sudan (X tons) - together made up 4.9% of total exports.

Exports from South Africa increased at an average annual rate of +7.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Sudan (+78.1%) and Liberia (+8.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Sudan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Africa, with a CAGR of +78.1% from 2012-2022. South Africa (+13 p.p.) and Sudan (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, South Africa ($X) remains the largest wheat supplier in Africa, comprising 90% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Liberia ($X), with a 4.3% share of total exports.

In South Africa, wheat exports increased at an average annual rate of +8.5% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Liberia (+18.5% per year) and Sudan (+45.7% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in Africa stood at $X per ton in 2022, surging by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a slight increase. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Liberia ($X per ton), while Sudan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Liberia (+9.0%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Wheat Imports

Imports in Africa

In 2022, the amount of wheat imported in Africa expanded sharply to X tons, surging by 9% on 2021. Total imports indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -0.3% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 41% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wheat imports expanded markedly to $X in 2022. Total imports indicated a temperate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +90.4% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when imports increased by 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports by Country

Algeria (X tons) and Egypt (X tons) represented the major importers of wheat in 2022, finishing at approx. 25% and 17% of total imports, respectively. Morocco (X tons) took an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Sudan (5.4%) and Nigeria (5.1%). Tunisia (X tons), Kenya (X tons), South Africa (X tons), Libya (X tons), Ethiopia (X tons), Cameroon (X tons), Angola (X tons) and Ghana (X tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Angola (with a CAGR of +54.8%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets in Africa were Egypt ($X), Algeria ($X) and Nigeria ($X), together comprising 51% of total imports. Morocco, Tunisia, Sudan, Ethiopia, South Africa, Kenya, Libya, Cameroon, Angola and Ghana lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 36%.

Angola, with a CAGR of +56.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in Africa amounted to $X per ton, increasing by 3.9% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the import price increased by 28% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Nigeria ($X per ton), while Sudan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ethiopia (+3.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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