ASEAN: Ethanol Market 2024

Ethanol Market Size in ASEAN

The ASEAN ethanol market was estimated at $X in 2022, surging by 12% against the previous year. The total consumption indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +85.3% against 2016 indices. The level of consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Ethanol Production in ASEAN

In value terms, ethanol production rose remarkably to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 26%. The level of production peaked at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Ethanol Exports

Exports in ASEAN

In 2022, exports of ethyl alcohol in ASEAN shrank dramatically to X litres, which is down by -32.6% compared with the year before. In general, exports faced a abrupt contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 60% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked at X litres in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, ethanol exports shrank significantly to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports saw a abrupt decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 45% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

The shipments of the three major exporters of ethyl alcohol, namely Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore, represented more than two-thirds of total export. Thailand (X litres) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 7.8% share, followed by Cambodia (6.2%). Myanmar (X litres) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Myanmar (with a CAGR of +180.8%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced a decline in the exports figures.

In value terms, Indonesia ($X), Vietnam ($X) and Singapore ($X) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 83% share of total exports. Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 16%.

Myanmar, with a CAGR of +172.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced a decline in the exports figures.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in ASEAN amounted to $X per litre, picking up by 2.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a slight setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the export price increased by 31%. The level of export peaked at $X per litre in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Thailand ($X per litre), while Myanmar ($X per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+1.4%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Ethanol Imports

Imports in ASEAN

In 2022, overseas purchases of ethyl alcohol increased by 15% to X litres, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Total imports indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +40.7% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, ethanol imports soared to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate buoyant growth. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

The Philippines represented the key importer of ethyl alcohol in ASEAN, with the volume of imports accounting for X litres, which was approx. 60% of total imports in 2022. Singapore (X litres) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Thailand (X litres). All these countries together took approx. 34% share of total imports. Malaysia (X litres) and Indonesia (X litres) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to ethanol imports into the Philippines stood at +3.6%. At the same time, Indonesia (+62.6%), Singapore (+15.3%) and Malaysia (+4.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Indonesia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in ASEAN, with a CAGR of +62.6% from 2012-2022. Thailand experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Singapore (+16 p.p.) and Indonesia (+2.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while Thailand and the Philippines saw its share reduced by -3.8% and -13.8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Philippines ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported ethyl alcohol in ASEAN, comprising 59% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Singapore ($X), with a 29% share of total imports. It was followed by Thailand, with a 6.9% share.

In the Philippines, ethanol imports increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Singapore (+16.7% per year) and Thailand (+1.6% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in ASEAN amounted to $X per litre, growing by 19% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 an increase of 23%. Over the period under review, import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Thailand ($X per litre) and Singapore ($X per litre), while Indonesia ($X per litre) and Malaysia ($X per litre) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+1.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform