ASEAN: Oat Market 2024

Oat Market Size in ASEAN

In 2022, after four years of growth, there was significant decline in the ASEAN oat market, when its value decreased by -5.4% to $X. The total consumption indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +54.2% against 2017 indices. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Oat Production in ASEAN

In value terms, oat production amounted to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total production indicated tangible growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +91.8% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 25% against the previous year. The level of production peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Thailand (X tons) and Malaysia (X tons).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Thailand (with a CAGR of +25.8%).

Oat Exports

Exports in ASEAN

In 2022, shipments abroad of oats increased by 28% to X tons, rising for the second year in a row after five years of decline. In general, exports continue to indicate notable growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 416%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X tons. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, oat exports surged to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded a strong increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when exports increased by 275% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $X. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

In 2022, Thailand (X tons) was the major exporter of oats, mixing up 67% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Singapore (X tons), achieving a 28% share of total exports. Malaysia (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Thailand was also the fastest-growing in terms of the oats exports, with a CAGR of +133.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Singapore (+8.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Malaysia (-21.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Thailand (+67 p.p.) and Singapore (+9.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Malaysia (-61.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Thailand ($X) remains the largest oat supplier in ASEAN, comprising 73% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Singapore ($X), with a 22% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Thailand amounted to +168.9%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Singapore (+6.4% per year) and Malaysia (-18.9% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in ASEAN amounted to $X per ton, surging by 3.8% against the previous year. Export price indicated a mild expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, oat export price increased by +13.7% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the export price increased by 35% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Malaysia ($X per ton), while Singapore ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand (+15.1%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Oat Imports

Imports in ASEAN

After three years of growth, supplies from abroad of oats decreased by -11.3% to X tons in 2022. Total imports indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 with an increase of 38%. The volume of import peaked at X tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, oat imports shrank modestly to $X in 2022. Total imports indicated a moderate increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +72.2% against 2017 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 37%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at $X in 2021, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

Imports by Country

The Philippines prevails in imports structure, accounting for X tons, which was approx. 78% of total imports in 2022. Vietnam (X tons) held an 8.3% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Malaysia (6.8%). The following importers - Singapore (X tons) and Thailand (X tons) - together made up 4.7% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to oat imports into the Philippines stood at +4.3%. At the same time, Vietnam (+39.6%), Thailand (+7.4%) and Singapore (+4.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in ASEAN, with a CAGR of +39.6% from 2012-2022. Malaysia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Vietnam (+7.9 p.p.) and the Philippines (+5.8 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while Malaysia saw its share reduced by -1.9% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the Philippines ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported oats in ASEAN, comprising 72% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Singapore ($X), with a 13% share of total imports. It was followed by Vietnam, with a 6.3% share.

In the Philippines, oat imports increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Singapore (+13.2% per year) and Vietnam (+37.9% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in ASEAN amounted to $X per ton, growing by 11% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the import price increased by 26% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $X per ton. From 2020 to 2022, the import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Singapore ($X per ton), while Malaysia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Singapore (+8.0%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform