ASEAN: Unmanufactured Tobacco Market 2025

Unmanufactured Tobacco Market Size in ASEAN

In 2022, the ASEAN unmanufactured tobacco market decreased by -3.7% to $X for the first time since 2016, thus ending a five-year rising trend. Overall, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level at $X in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Production in ASEAN

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco production fell to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total production indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -1.1% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 27%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $X; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Indonesia (X tons) remains the largest unmanufactured tobacco producing country in ASEAN, comprising approx. 52% of total volume. Moreover, unmanufactured tobacco production in Indonesia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Thailand (X tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was held by the Philippines (X tons), with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in Indonesia was relatively modest. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Thailand (-0.1% per year) and the Philippines (+0.7% per year).

In 2022, the average yield of tobacco (unmanufactured) in ASEAN shrank slightly to X tons per ha, leveling off at the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the yield increased by 7.8%. The level of yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2021, and then contracted slightly in the following year. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, approx. X ha of tobacco (unmanufactured) were harvested in ASEAN; surging by 2.5% compared with 2021. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, recorded a perceptible shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the harvested area increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to unmanufactured tobacco production attained the maximum at X ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Exports

Exports in ASEAN

In 2022, shipments abroad of tobacco (unmanufactured) increased by 47% to X tons, rising for the second year in a row after three years of decline. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 48%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of X tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco exports surged to $X in 2022. Total exports indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +56.1% against 2020 indices. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

In 2022, Indonesia (X tons) and the Philippines (X tons) represented the major exporters of tobacco (unmanufactured) in ASEAN, together reaching near 76% of total exports. Thailand (X tons) took an 11% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Singapore (5.8%). The following exporters - Vietnam (X tons) and Lao People's Democratic Republic (X tons) - together made up 5.7% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Lao People's Democratic Republic (with a CAGR of +18.2%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Indonesia ($X) remains the largest unmanufactured tobacco supplier in ASEAN, comprising 54% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Philippines ($X), with a 26% share of total exports. It was followed by Thailand, with a 9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Indonesia stood at +9.3%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Philippines (+9.2% per year) and Thailand (-2.9% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in ASEAN amounted to $X per ton, shrinking by -3.7% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.4%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the export price increased by 36% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Indonesia ($X per ton), while Vietnam ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+5.2%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Unmanufactured Tobacco Imports

Imports in ASEAN

In 2022, supplies from abroad of tobacco (unmanufactured) increased by 16% to X tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Overall, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The volume of import peaked at X tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, unmanufactured tobacco imports reduced to $X in 2022. In general, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

Indonesia represented the main importer of tobacco (unmanufactured) in ASEAN, with the volume of imports resulting at X tons, which was approx. 49% of total imports in 2022. The Philippines (X tons) took a 20% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Vietnam (18%) and Singapore (5.9%). Malaysia (X tons) and Myanmar (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Indonesia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of tobacco (unmanufactured). At the same time, Vietnam (+9.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in ASEAN, with a CAGR of +9.9% from 2012-2022. Singapore and the Philippines experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Myanmar (-11.4%) and Malaysia (-13.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Vietnam and Indonesia increased by +11 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Indonesia ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported tobacco (unmanufactured) in ASEAN, comprising 48% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the Philippines ($X), with a 21% share of total imports. It was followed by Vietnam, with a 21% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Indonesia stood at -1.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Philippines (+5.4% per year) and Vietnam (+9.4% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in ASEAN amounted to $X per ton, waning by -15.2% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the import price increased by 9.2%. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Vietnam ($X per ton), while Malaysia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Myanmar (+8.1%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform