ASEAN: Wheat Market 2024

Wheat Market Size in ASEAN

In 2022, the ASEAN wheat market increased by 9.2% to $X, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. The total consumption indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +32.9% against 2020 indices. The level of consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

Wheat Production in ASEAN

In value terms, wheat production totaled $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a abrupt shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 443% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2018 to 2022, production growth failed to regain momentum.

Myanmar (X tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of wheat production, comprising approx. 99% of total volume.

In Myanmar, wheat production decreased by an average annual rate of -5.3% over the period from 2012-2022.

The average wheat yield amounted to X tons per ha in 2022, with an increase of 13% compared with the previous year. In general, the yield, however, saw a slight reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the yield increased by 58%. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of X tons per ha. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the wheat yield failed to regain momentum. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the harvested area of wheat in ASEAN fell to X ha, dropping by -9.4% on the previous year. Overall, the harvested area showed a perceptible descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the harvested area increased by 23%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to wheat production attained the maximum at X ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Wheat Exports

Exports in ASEAN

In 2022, exports of wheat in ASEAN totaled X tons, with an increase of 4.7% on 2021. Over the period under review, exports showed prominent growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when exports increased by 621%. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, wheat exports reduced to $X in 2022. In general, exports enjoyed moderate growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 369% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Vietnam dominates exports structure, finishing at X tons, which was near 96% of total exports in 2022. Indonesia (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Vietnam was also the fastest-growing in terms of the wheat exports, with a CAGR of +59.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Indonesia (+33.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. While the share of Vietnam (+93 p.p.) and Indonesia (+2.8 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Vietnam ($X) remains the largest wheat supplier in ASEAN, comprising 93% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Indonesia ($X), with a 4.5% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Vietnam stood at +56.4%.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in ASEAN amounted to $X per ton, reducing by -8.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a pronounced descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the export price increased by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices reached the maximum at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Indonesia ($X per ton), while Vietnam totaled $X per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (-1.2%).

Wheat Imports

Imports in ASEAN

In 2022, approx. X tons of wheat were imported in ASEAN; waning by -5.4% against the year before. Total imports indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +3.8% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 36%. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at X tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, wheat imports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +53.4% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 30%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Indonesia (X tons) was the key importer of wheat, comprising 45% of total imports. The Philippines (X tons) took a 27% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Vietnam (15%), Thailand (6.1%) and Malaysia (5.1%).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Philippines (with a CAGR of +9.0%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets in ASEAN were Indonesia ($X), the Philippines ($X) and Vietnam ($X), with a combined 87% share of total imports.

The Philippines, with a CAGR of +10.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The import price in ASEAN stood at $X per ton in 2022, jumping by 25% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Thailand ($X per ton) and Indonesia ($X per ton), while Vietnam ($X per ton) and Malaysia ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Thailand (+2.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform