Brazil: Wheat Market 2025

Wheat Market Size in Brazil

The Brazilian wheat market reduced slightly to $X in 2022, dropping by -4.2% against the previous year. Overall, the total consumption indicated a noticeable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +19.7% against 2020 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Wheat Production in Brazil

In value terms, wheat production totaled $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 48%. Wheat production peaked at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

The average yield of wheat in Brazil dropped modestly to X tons per ha in 2022, falling by -4.2% against 2021 figures. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the yield increased by 42% against the previous year. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of X tons per ha. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the average wheat yield failed to regain momentum. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the harvested area of wheat in Brazil contracted to X ha, waning by -5.7% against 2021 figures. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 36%. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of X ha. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the wheat harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Wheat Exports

Exports from Brazil

In 2022, shipments abroad of wheat increased by 112% to X tons, rising for the fourth year in a row after three years of decline. Overall, exports posted a pronounced increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 335%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, wheat exports surged to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports showed a notable expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when exports increased by 251%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports by Country

Saudi Arabia (X tons), Indonesia (X tons) and Vietnam (X tons) were the main destinations of wheat exports from Brazil, together accounting for 52% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +130.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Saudi Arabia ($X), Indonesia ($X) and Vietnam ($X) were the largest markets for wheat exported from Brazil worldwide, with a combined 52% share of total exports.

Indonesia, with a CAGR of +147.5%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main countries of destination over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average wheat export price stood at $X per ton in 2022, surging by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, wheat export price increased by +94.6% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major external markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Bangladesh ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to South Korea ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Bangladesh (+41.5%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Wheat Imports

Imports into Brazil

In 2022, approx. X tons of wheat were imported into Brazil; falling by -8.2% against 2021. Over the period under review, imports recorded a slight contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 33% against the previous year. Imports peaked at X tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wheat imports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +55.1% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 40%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $X. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Argentina (X tons) constituted the largest wheat supplier to Brazil, accounting for a 78% share of total imports. Moreover, wheat imports from Argentina exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, the United States (X tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Paraguay (X tons), with a 5.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume from Argentina amounted to -1.1%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the United States (+21.6% per year) and Paraguay (-8.9% per year).

In value terms, Argentina ($X) constituted the largest supplier of wheat to Brazil, comprising 78% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($X), with a 6.4% share of total imports. It was followed by Russia, with a 5.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Argentina amounted to +2.9%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the United States (+26.7% per year) and Russia (+106.5% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the average wheat import price amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a moderate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, wheat import price increased by +67.2% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the countries with the highest prices were the United States ($X per ton) and Argentina ($X per ton), while the price for Paraguay ($X per ton) and Uruguay ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia (+11.7%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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