Central Asia: Grain Market 2025

Grain Market Size in Central Asia

In 2022, the Central Asian grain market decreased by X% to $X for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. In general, consumption, however, showed a deep slump. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Grain Production in Central Asia

In value terms, grain production expanded to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of X%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $X. From 2014 to 2022, production growth failed to regain momentum.

Kazakhstan (X tons) remains the largest grain producing country in Central Asia, comprising approx. X% of total volume. Moreover, grain production in Kazakhstan exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Uzbekistan (X tons), threefold. Kyrgyzstan (X tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a X% share.

In Kazakhstan, grain production expanded at an average annual rate of X% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Uzbekistan (X% per year) and Kyrgyzstan (X% per year).

The average grain yield stood at X tons per ha in 2022, with an increase of X% against 2021. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of X% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the grain yield hit record highs at X tons per ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the harvested area of cereal grains in Central Asia reduced modestly to X ha, approximately reflecting 2021 figures. Overall, the harvested area, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of X% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of X ha. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the grain harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Grain Exports

Exports in Central Asia

In 2022, overseas shipments of cereal grains increased by X% to X tons, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. In general, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by X% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, grain exports soared to $X in 2022. Overall, exports showed a moderate increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

In 2022, Kazakhstan (X tons) represented the major exporter of cereal grains in Central Asia, mixing up X% of total export.

Kazakhstan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of cereal grains. The shares of the largest exporters remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Kazakhstan ($X) also remains the largest grain supplier in Central Asia.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Kazakhstan stood at X%.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in Central Asia amounted to $X per ton, surging by X% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of X%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

As there is only one major export destination, the average price level is determined by prices for Kazakhstan.

From 2012 to 2022, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Kazakhstan amounted to X% per year.

Grain Imports

Imports in Central Asia

In 2022, purchases abroad of cereal grains increased by X% to X tons, rising for the eighth consecutive year after two years of decline. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate a prominent increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, grain imports surged to $X in 2022. Overall, imports posted a remarkable increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by X%. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

Uzbekistan was the key importer of cereal grains in Central Asia, with the volume of imports recording X tons, which was approx. X% of total imports in 2022. Kazakhstan (X tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Tajikistan (X tons). All these countries together held approx. X% share of total imports. Kyrgyzstan (X tons) and Turkmenistan (X tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of X%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Uzbekistan ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported cereal grains in Central Asia, comprising X% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Kazakhstan ($X), with a X% share of total imports. It was followed by Tajikistan, with a X% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Uzbekistan totaled X%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Kazakhstan (X% per year) and Tajikistan (X% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in Central Asia stood at $X per ton in 2022, with an increase of X% against the previous year. Import price indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, grain import price increased by X% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the import price increased by X% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Tajikistan ($X per ton), while Kazakhstan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tajikistan (X%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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