Central Asia: Nitrogen Market 2024

Nitrogen Market Size in Central Asia

The Central Asian nitrogen market rose remarkably to $X in 2021, increasing by 7.5% against the previous year. The total consumption indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, consumption decreased by -6.8% against 2019 indices. Over the period under review, the market attained the peak level at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2021, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Nitrogen Production in Central Asia

In value terms, nitrogen production rose markedly to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. The total production indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, production decreased by -10.3% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 66% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $X. From 2015 to 2021, production growth failed to regain momentum.

Nitrogen Exports

Exports in Central Asia

In 2021, overseas shipments of nitrogen increased by 118% to X cubic meters, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. Overall, exports enjoyed resilient growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 207%. The volume of export peaked in 2021 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, nitrogen exports surged to $X in 2021. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a abrupt setback. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when exports increased by 117%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

In 2021, Kazakhstan (X cubic meters) was the major exporter of nitrogen in Central Asia, creating 100% of total export.

Kazakhstan was also the fastest-growing in terms of the nitrogen exports, with a CAGR of +9.4% from 2012 to 2021. The shares of the largest exporters remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Kazakhstan ($X) also remains the largest nitrogen supplier in Central Asia.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Kazakhstan totaled -11.4%.

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the export price in Central Asia amounted to $X per cubic meter, shrinking by -44.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a deep slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the export price increased by 41% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X per cubic meter in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

As there is only one major export destination, the average price level is determined by prices for Kazakhstan.

From 2012 to 2021, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Kazakhstan amounted to -19.0% per year.

Nitrogen Imports

Imports in Central Asia

After four years of growth, purchases abroad of nitrogen decreased by -34% to X cubic meters in 2021. Overall, imports, however, enjoyed a significant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 574% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked at X cubic meters in 2020, and then fell markedly in the following year.

In value terms, nitrogen imports soared to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports, however, enjoyed a prominent expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 40% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2021 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2021, Uzbekistan (X cubic meters) represented the key importer of nitrogen, generating 60% of total imports. Turkmenistan (X cubic meters) held an 18% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Kazakhstan (15%) and Tajikistan (7%).

Imports into Uzbekistan decreased at an average annual rate of -10.4% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, Tajikistan (+114.8%), Kazakhstan (+26.0%) and Turkmenistan (+8.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Tajikistan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Central Asia, with a CAGR of +114.8% from 2012-2021. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan increased by +60 and +6.9 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, Kazakhstan ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported nitrogen in Central Asia, comprising 71% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Turkmenistan ($X), with a 22% share of total imports. It was followed by Uzbekistan, with a 5.5% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Kazakhstan totaled +9.8%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Turkmenistan (+11.2% per year) and Uzbekistan (-1.0% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in Central Asia stood at $X per cubic meter in 2021, surging by 81% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, faced a deep setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the import price increased by 263%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $X per cubic meter. From 2014 to 2021, the import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2021, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Kazakhstan ($X per cubic meter), while Uzbekistan ($X per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+10.5%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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