Central Asia: Oat Market 2025

Oat Market Size in Central Asia

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in the Central Asian oat market, when its value decreased by -15.3% to $X. The total consumption indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +9.9% against 2018 indices. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $X in 2021, and then declined significantly in the following year.

Oat Production in Central Asia

In value terms, oat production reached $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 110%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2014 to 2022, production growth failed to regain momentum.

The country with the largest volume of oat production was Kazakhstan (X tons), comprising approx. 79% of total volume. Moreover, oat production in Kazakhstan exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Uzbekistan (X tons), eightfold.

In Kazakhstan, oat production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Uzbekistan (+115.0% per year) and Mongolia (+15.4% per year).

In 2022, the average yield of oats in Central Asia reached X tons per ha, approximately mirroring the year before. The yield indicated modest growth from 2012 to 2022: its figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, oat yield decreased by -32.9% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the yield increased by 51%. The level of yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, approx. X ha of oats were harvested in Central Asia; waning by -2.2% compared with 2021. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 35% against the previous year. The level of harvested area peaked at X ha in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Oat Exports

Exports in Central Asia

In 2022, overseas shipments of oats were finally on the rise to reach X tons after three years of decline. Overall, exports posted a prominent expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 625%. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, oat exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports saw a modest increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when exports increased by 555%. The level of export peaked at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

The shipments of the one major exporters of oats, namely Kazakhstan, represented more than two-thirds of total export.

Kazakhstan was also the fastest-growing in terms of the oats exports, with a CAGR of +6.2% from 2012 to 2022. The shares of the largest exporters remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Kazakhstan ($X) also remains the largest oat supplier in Central Asia.

In Kazakhstan, oat exports increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in Central Asia amounted to $X per ton, jumping by 19% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, recorded a perceptible slump. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the export price increased by 25% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

As there is only one major export destination, the average price level is determined by prices for Kazakhstan.

From 2012 to 2022, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Kazakhstan amounted to -4.7% per year.

Oat Imports

Imports in Central Asia

After two years of growth, overseas purchases of oats decreased by -23.5% to X tons in 2022. In general, imports, however, showed a resilient expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when imports increased by 96%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at X tons in 2021, and then dropped remarkably in the following year.

In value terms, oat imports dropped notably to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw a remarkable increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 79%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $X, and then shrank significantly in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Mongolia (X tons) was the largest importer of oats, comprising 80% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Kazakhstan (X tons) and Uzbekistan (X tons), together mixing up a 19% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to oat imports into Mongolia stood at +16.0%. At the same time, Kazakhstan (+33.0%) and Uzbekistan (+20.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kazakhstan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Central Asia, with a CAGR of +33.0% from 2012-2022. While the share of Kazakhstan (+9.7 p.p.) and Uzbekistan (+5.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of Mongolia (-6.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Mongolia ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported oats in Central Asia, comprising 82% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Kazakhstan ($X), with a 13% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Mongolia totaled +13.0%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Kazakhstan (+19.5% per year) and Uzbekistan (+29.9% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in Central Asia amounted to $X per ton, picking up by 8.7% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, saw a noticeable contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 an increase of 24%. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Mongolia ($X per ton), while Uzbekistan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+7.8%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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