Central Asia: Market for Wheat and Meslin Flour 2024

Market Size for Wheat and Meslin Flour in Central Asia

After four years of growth, the Central Asian wheat and meslin flour market decreased by -6.6% to $X in 2022. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production of Wheat and Meslin Flour in Central Asia

In value terms, wheat and meslin flour production reached $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 16% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports of Wheat and Meslin Flour

Exports in Central Asia

Wheat and meslin flour exports surged to X tons in 2022, jumping by 38% on 2021. Total exports indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 70% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, wheat and meslin flour exports surged to $X in 2022. Overall, exports continue to indicate resilient growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 65%. The level of export peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

In 2022, Kazakhstan (X tons) represented the key exporter of wheat and meslin flour, comprising 71% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Uzbekistan (X tons), making up a 29% share of total exports.

Exports from Kazakhstan decreased at an average annual rate of -1.5% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Uzbekistan (+30.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Uzbekistan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Central Asia, with a CAGR of +30.6% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Uzbekistan increased by +29 percentage points.

In value terms, Kazakhstan ($X) remains the largest wheat and meslin flour supplier in Central Asia, comprising 74% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Uzbekistan ($X), with a 26% share of total exports.

In Kazakhstan, wheat and meslin flour exports increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in Central Asia stood at $X per ton in 2022, growing by 2.3% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.3%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 29% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Kazakhstan ($X per ton), while Uzbekistan totaled $X per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+8.7%).

Imports of Wheat and Meslin Flour

Imports in Central Asia

In 2022, supplies from abroad of wheat and meslin flour increased by 19% to X tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year declining trend. In general, imports enjoyed modest growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when imports increased by 266%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at X tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wheat and meslin flour imports surged to $X in 2022. Overall, imports saw a moderate increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when imports increased by 135%. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Uzbekistan (X tons) was the key importer of wheat and meslin flour, achieving 70% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Tajikistan (X tons) and Turkmenistan (X tons), together committing a 22% share of total imports. The following importers - Kyrgyzstan (X tons) and Kazakhstan (X tons) - each recorded an 8.6% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to wheat and meslin flour imports into Uzbekistan stood at -3.6%. At the same time, Kazakhstan (+26.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kazakhstan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Central Asia, with a CAGR of +26.7% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Turkmenistan (-4.5%), Tajikistan (-11.7%) and Kyrgyzstan (-13.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Uzbekistan (+70 p.p.) and Kazakhstan (+3.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of Turkmenistan (-5.9 p.p.), Kyrgyzstan (-16.4 p.p.) and Tajikistan (-42.7 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Uzbekistan ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported wheat and meslin flour in Central Asia, comprising 69% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Tajikistan ($X), with a 12% share of total imports. It was followed by Turkmenistan, with a 7.7% share.

In Uzbekistan, wheat and meslin flour imports expanded at an average annual rate of +9.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Tajikistan (-12.0% per year) and Turkmenistan (-5.5% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in Central Asia stood at $X per ton in 2022, picking up by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the import price increased by 23% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Kyrgyzstan ($X per ton), while Tajikistan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+13.4%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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