Central Asia: Wheat Market 2025

Wheat Market Size in Central Asia

The Central Asian wheat market was estimated at $X in 2022, picking up by 4.5% against the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Wheat Production in Central Asia

In value terms, wheat production expanded to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 when the production volume increased by 30%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2014 to 2022, production growth failed to regain momentum.

The country with the largest volume of wheat production was Kazakhstan (X tons), accounting for 58% of total volume. Moreover, wheat production in Kazakhstan exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Uzbekistan (X tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Turkmenistan (X tons), with a 6.4% share.

In Kazakhstan, wheat production expanded at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Uzbekistan (-0.8% per year) and Turkmenistan (+1.7% per year).

In 2022, the average wheat yield in Central Asia expanded notably to X tons per ha, increasing by 8.9% against 2021 figures. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the wheat yield attained the maximum level at X tons per ha in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of wheat production in Central Asia declined modestly to X ha, which is down by -2% on the previous year. Overall, the harvested area showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 5.3%. The level of harvested area peaked at X ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Wheat Exports

Exports in Central Asia

In 2022, shipments abroad of wheat increased by 9.5% to X tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. Overall, exports, however, showed a mild decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 105% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at X tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wheat exports soared to $X in 2022. In general, exports showed a slight expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when exports increased by 88% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports by Country

The biggest shipments were from Kazakhstan (X tons), together reaching 100% of total export.

Kazakhstan was also the fastest-growing in terms of the wheat exports, with a CAGR of -1.6% from 2012 to 2022. The shares of the largest exporters remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Kazakhstan ($X) also remains the largest wheat supplier in Central Asia.

In Kazakhstan, wheat exports increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in Central Asia amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of 22% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +3.5%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

As there is only one major export destination, the average price level is determined by prices for Kazakhstan.

From 2012 to 2022, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Kazakhstan amounted to +3.5% per year.

Wheat Imports

Imports in Central Asia

In 2022, purchases abroad of wheat increased by 14% to X tons, rising for the eighth year in a row after two years of decline. In general, imports recorded a strong expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 95%. The volume of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, wheat imports soared to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports saw a prominent expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when imports increased by 38% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports by Country

Uzbekistan was the key importing country with an import of about X tons, which resulted at 47% of total imports. Kazakhstan (X tons) held the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Tajikistan (X tons). All these countries together held near 44% share of total imports. Kyrgyzstan (X tons), Mongolia (X tons) and Turkmenistan (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Kazakhstan (with a CAGR of +62.0%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Uzbekistan ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported wheat in Central Asia, comprising 52% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Kazakhstan ($X), with a 22% share of total imports. It was followed by Tajikistan, with a 17% share.

In Uzbekistan, wheat imports increased at an average annual rate of +35.0% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Kazakhstan (+58.5% per year) and Tajikistan (+4.8% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in Central Asia amounted to $X per ton, growing by 2.8% against the previous year. Import price indicated a slight expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, wheat import price increased by +82.2% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 an increase of 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Turkmenistan ($X per ton) and Uzbekistan ($X per ton), while Kazakhstan ($X per ton) and Mongolia ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+18.5%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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