CIS: Ammonium Nitrate Market 2024

Ammonium Nitrate Market Size in CIS

In 2021, the CIS ammonium nitrate market decreased by -3.5% to $X, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a perceptible slump. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X. From 2016 to 2021, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Ammonium Nitrate Production in CIS

In value terms, ammonium nitrate production surged to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a noticeable downturn. The level of production peaked at $X in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2021, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Ammonium Nitrate Exports

Exports in CIS

For the third year in a row, the CIS recorded growth in shipments abroad of ammonium nitrate, which increased by 23% to X tons in 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% from 2012 to 2021; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate exports skyrocketed to $X in 2021. Total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

Russia prevails in exports structure, recording X tons, which was approx. 92% of total exports in 2021. It was distantly followed by Uzbekistan (X tons), creating a 5.2% share of total exports. Kazakhstan (X tons) took a little share of total exports.

Exports from Russia increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2012 to 2021. At the same time, Kazakhstan (+6.2%) and Uzbekistan (+5.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kazakhstan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the CIS, with a CAGR of +6.2% from 2012-2021. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Uzbekistan increased by +5.2 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($X) remains the largest ammonium nitrate supplier in the CIS, comprising 90% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Uzbekistan ($X), with a 6.8% share of total exports.

In Russia, ammonium nitrate exports expanded at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012-2021. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Uzbekistan (+12.9% per year) and Kazakhstan (+4.7% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the export price in the CIS amounted to $X per ton, growing by 51% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, recorded a slight decline. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2021, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Uzbekistan ($X per ton), while Russia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+7.6%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Ammonium Nitrate Imports

Imports in CIS

In 2021, overseas purchases of ammonium nitrate decreased by -15.3% to X tons for the first time since 2014, thus ending a six-year rising trend. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 22% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked at X tons in 2020, and then reduced sharply in the following year.

In value terms, ammonium nitrate imports reached $X in 2021. In general, imports showed a perceptible decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 24% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

In 2021, Kazakhstan (X tons) represented the main importer of ammonium nitrate, constituting 43% of total imports. Kyrgyzstan (X tons) took a 17% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Azerbaijan (11%), Moldova (8.7%), Belarus (8.5%) and Armenia (6.9%). Tajikistan (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2021, average annual rates of growth with regard to ammonium nitrate imports into Kazakhstan stood at +1.1%. At the same time, Tajikistan (+13.2%), Moldova (+3.5%) and Armenia (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Tajikistan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the CIS, with a CAGR of +13.2% from 2012-2021. Azerbaijan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Kyrgyzstan (-1.7%) and Belarus (-3.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Tajikistan (+2.3 p.p.), Kazakhstan (+2.1 p.p.) and Moldova (+2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2021, the share of Kyrgyzstan (-3.8 p.p.) and Belarus (-4.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Kazakhstan ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported ammonium nitrate in the CIS, comprising 47% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Kyrgyzstan ($X), with a 15% share of total imports. It was followed by Azerbaijan, with a 10% share.

From 2012 to 2021, the average annual growth rate of value in Kazakhstan was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Kyrgyzstan (-6.9% per year) and Azerbaijan (-5.1% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in the CIS stood at $X per ton in 2021, with an increase of 30% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a perceptible decline. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2021, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2021, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Tajikistan ($X per ton), while Belarus ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Tajikistan (+2.8%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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