CIS: Market for Flaked or Rolled Cereals 2024

Market Size for Flaked or Rolled Cereals in CIS

The CIS flaked or rolled cereal market expanded sharply to $X in 2022, rising by 6.6% against the previous year. The total consumption indicated a prominent expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -3.5% against 2020 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $X. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the market failed to regain momentum.

Production of Flaked or Rolled Cereals in CIS

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal production expanded remarkably to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total production indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -4.7% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by 23% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2021 to 2022, production growth remained at a lower figure.

Exports of Flaked or Rolled Cereals

Exports in CIS

After two years of growth, overseas shipments of flaked or rolled cereals decreased by -3.3% to X tons in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, saw a strong expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 45%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at X tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal exports shrank slightly to $X in 2022. In general, exports, however, posted a buoyant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 31%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at $X in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Exports by Country

Russia represented the key exporting country with an export of about X tons, which accounted for 79% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Kazakhstan (X tons), making up a 17% share of total exports. Belarus (X tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to flaked or rolled cereal exports from Russia stood at +8.9%. At the same time, Kazakhstan (+34.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kazakhstan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the CIS, with a CAGR of +34.1% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Belarus (-9.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Kazakhstan (+15 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Belarus (-12.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($X) remains the largest flaked or rolled cereal supplier in the CIS, comprising 76% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Kazakhstan ($X), with a 21% share of total exports.

In Russia, flaked or rolled cereal exports expanded at an average annual rate of +8.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Kazakhstan (+42.3% per year) and Belarus (-7.1% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in the CIS amounted to $X per ton, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the export price increased by 34%. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the peak figure at $X per ton in 2021, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Kazakhstan ($X per ton), while Belarus ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kazakhstan (+6.1%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Imports of Flaked or Rolled Cereals

Imports in CIS

After four years of decline, purchases abroad of flaked or rolled cereals increased by 13% to X tons in 2022. Total imports indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 68%. As a result, imports reached the peak of X tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, flaked or rolled cereal imports stood at $X in 2022. Total imports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +37.3% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 38%. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports by Country

Uzbekistan (X tons) and Belarus (X tons) represented roughly 44% of total imports in 2022. Azerbaijan (X tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Kazakhstan (X tons), Russia (X tons), Moldova (X tons) and Armenia (X tons). All these countries together took near 53% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Armenia (with a CAGR of +21.2%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Belarus ($X), Uzbekistan ($X) and Kazakhstan ($X) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 55% of total imports. Moldova, Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 43%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Azerbaijan, with a CAGR of +18.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in the CIS amounted to $X per ton, dropping by -1.8% against the previous year. Import price indicated a mild increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, flaked or rolled cereal import price increased by +89.6% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the import price increased by 34% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Moldova ($X per ton), while Azerbaijan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belarus (+8.2%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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