CIS: Oat Market 2024

Oat Market Size in CIS

The CIS oat market rose slightly to $X in 2022, picking up by 2.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a slight descent. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Oat Production in CIS

In value terms, oat production amounted to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, recorded a slight setback. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 24%. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Russia (X tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of oat production, accounting for 86% of total volume. Moreover, oat production in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Belarus (X tons), tenfold.

In Russia, oat production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Belarus (-0.6% per year) and Kazakhstan (+3.7% per year).

The average oat yield expanded modestly to X tons per ha in 2022, growing by 2.4% compared with the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the yield increased by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the oat yield hit record highs at X tons per ha in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the yield remained at a lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, approx. X ha of oats were harvested in the CIS; growing by 2.8% compared with 2021. Overall, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a mild downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the harvested area increased by 6.5% against the previous year. The level of harvested area peaked at X ha in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Oat Exports

Exports in CIS

In 2022, after two years of decline, there was significant growth in overseas shipments of oats, when their volume increased by 6.2% to X tons. Over the period under review, exports posted a strong increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 175% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at X tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, oat exports expanded modestly to $X in 2022. Overall, exports enjoyed buoyant growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 156%. The level of export peaked at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports by Country

Russia prevails in exports structure, recording X tons, which was near 95% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Kazakhstan (X tons), constituting a 4.8% share of total exports.

Russia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the oats exports, with a CAGR of +17.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Kazakhstan (+6.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. While the share of Russia (+7.4 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Kazakhstan (-7.7 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Russia ($X) remains the largest oat supplier in the CIS, comprising 95% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Kazakhstan ($X), with a 4.2% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Russia totaled +15.4%.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in the CIS stood at $X per ton in 2022, declining by -2.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a pronounced curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 an increase of 18%. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Russia ($X per ton), while Kazakhstan totaled $X per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia (-2.1%).

Oat Imports

Imports in CIS

After three years of decline, supplies from abroad of oats increased by 55% to X tons in 2022. Overall, imports posted a prominent expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 289% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, oat imports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports saw a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 187% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

Kazakhstan was the key importing country with an import of about X tons, which finished at 48% of total imports. Uzbekistan (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 19% share, followed by Belarus (16%) and Armenia (13%). Kyrgyzstan (X tons) and Azerbaijan (X tons) held a minor share of total imports.

Imports into Kazakhstan increased at an average annual rate of +33.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Armenia (+45.7%), Uzbekistan (+20.5%), Belarus (+19.4%) and Kyrgyzstan (+5.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Armenia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the CIS, with a CAGR of +45.7% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Azerbaijan (-13.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Kazakhstan (+36 p.p.), Uzbekistan (+19 p.p.), Armenia (+11 p.p.) and Belarus (+4.2 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan saw its share reduced by -4.7% and -25.7% from 2012 to 2022, respectively.

In value terms, Kazakhstan ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported oats in the CIS, comprising 50% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Belarus ($X), with a 20% share of total imports. It was followed by Uzbekistan, with a 15% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Kazakhstan stood at +19.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Belarus (+16.5% per year) and Uzbekistan (+29.9% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in the CIS stood at $X per ton in 2022, waning by -23.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a abrupt setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 66% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Azerbaijan ($X per ton), while Kyrgyzstan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Azerbaijan (+9.0%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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