CIS: Market for Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates 2024

Market Size for Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates in CIS

In 2022, the CIS market for processed petroleum oils and distillates increased by 0.7% to $X, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. In general, consumption, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Production of Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates in CIS

In value terms, processed petroleum oils and distillates production declined to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production recorded a noticeable shrinkage. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 24% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports of Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates

Exports in CIS

In 2022, exports of processed petroleum oils and distillates in the CIS declined to X tons, with a decrease of -7.8% on the year before. In general, exports continue to indicate a mild descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 18%. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, processed petroleum oils and distillates exports contracted remarkably to $X in 2022. Overall, exports recorded a deep downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 59% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Russia prevails in exports structure, reaching X tons, which was approx. 94% of total exports in 2022. Belarus (X tons) and Kazakhstan (X tons) held a minor share of total exports.

Russia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of processed petroleum oils and distillates. Kazakhstan (-7.3%) and Belarus (-13.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Russia (+9.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Belarus (-7.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($X) remains the largest processed petroleum oils and distillates supplier in the CIS, comprising 95% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Belarus ($X), with a 2.4% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Russia totaled -6.1%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Belarus (-20.8% per year) and Kazakhstan (-13.7% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in the CIS stood at $X per ton in 2022, dropping by -11.4% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a abrupt contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the export price increased by 54%. Over the period under review, the export prices reached the maximum at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Russia ($X per ton), while Kazakhstan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia (-5.4%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Imports of Processed Petroleum Oils and Distillates

Imports in CIS

In 2022, supplies from abroad of processed petroleum oils and distillates increased by 10% to X tons, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. Total imports indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +78.7% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 46%. The volume of import peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, processed petroleum oils and distillates imports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 36% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Kyrgyzstan (X tons), Moldova (X tons), Kazakhstan (X tons), Azerbaijan (X tons), Uzbekistan (X tons), Armenia (X tons) and Tajikistan (X tons) was the largest importer of processed petroleum oils and distillates in the CIS, making up 98% of total import.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Azerbaijan (with a CAGR of +37.3%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Moldova ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported processed petroleum oils and distillates in the CIS, comprising 34% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Kyrgyzstan ($X), with a 16% share of total imports. It was followed by Kazakhstan, with a 13% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Moldova amounted to +15.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Kyrgyzstan (+0.0% per year) and Kazakhstan (-5.0% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in the CIS amounted to $X per ton, jumping by 23% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a pronounced reduction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the import price increased by 34%. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Moldova ($X per ton), while Armenia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Armenia (+6.1%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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