CIS: Crude Oil Market 2024

Crude Oil Market Size in CIS

The CIS crude oil market shrank to $X in 2022, waning by -7.5% against the previous year. Overall, consumption recorded a perceptible shrinkage. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Crude Oil Production in CIS

In value terms, crude oil production contracted to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production continues to indicate a pronounced descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Crude Oil Exports

Exports in CIS

In 2022, after two years of decline, there was growth in shipments abroad of crude petroleum oil, when their volume increased by 1.6% to X tons. In general, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when exports increased by 6.4% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at X tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, crude oil exports reached $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a perceptible reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 46%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

Russia represented the major exporting country with an export of about X tons, which reached 69% of total exports. Kazakhstan (X tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Azerbaijan (X tons). All these countries together took approx. 31% share of total exports.

Russia experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of exports of crude petroleum oil. At the same time, Azerbaijan (+4.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Azerbaijan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the CIS, with a CAGR of +4.7% from 2012-2022. Kazakhstan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. Azerbaijan (+4 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Russia saw its share reduced by -2.6% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest crude oil supplying countries in the CIS were Russia ($X), Kazakhstan ($X) and Azerbaijan ($X), together comprising 100% of total exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Azerbaijan, with a CAGR of -0.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced a decline in the exports figures.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in the CIS amounted to $X per ton, standing approx. at the previous year. In general, the export price, however, saw a abrupt decline. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 48%. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Kazakhstan ($X per ton), while Russia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kazakhstan (-1.4%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Crude Oil Imports

Imports in CIS

In 2022, after three years of decline, there was significant growth in supplies from abroad of crude petroleum oil, when their volume increased by 2,189% to X tons. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate a abrupt curtailment. The volume of import peaked at X tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, crude oil imports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a deep contraction. The level of import peaked at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

Belarus dominates imports structure, recording X tons, which was near 83% of total imports in 2022. Azerbaijan (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 9.3% share, followed by Uzbekistan (6.2%).

Imports into Belarus decreased at an average annual rate of -12.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Azerbaijan (+31.6%) and Uzbekistan (+1.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Azerbaijan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the CIS, with a CAGR of +31.6% from 2012-2022. Azerbaijan (+9.2 p.p.), Belarus (+6.2 p.p.) and Uzbekistan (+4.9 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Belarus ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported crude petroleum oil in the CIS, comprising 71% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Azerbaijan ($X), with a 17% share of total imports.

In Belarus, crude oil imports declined by an average annual rate of -13.9% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Azerbaijan (+37.2% per year) and Uzbekistan (-0.5% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in the CIS amounted to $X per ton, with a decrease of -20.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the import price increased by 46% against the previous year. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $X per ton, and then fell notably in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Azerbaijan ($X per ton), while Belarus ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Azerbaijan (+4.2%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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