CIS: Tobacco Market 2025

Tobacco Market Size in CIS

In 2021, the CIS tobacco market increased by 4.8% to $X, rising for the fourth consecutive year after five years of decline. The total consumption indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2021: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, consumption increased by +77.1% against 2017 indices. The level of consumption peaked in 2021 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Tobacco Production in CIS

In value terms, tobacco production contracted to $X in 2021 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a slight decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 29% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $X, and then reduced in the following year.

Tobacco Exports

Exports in CIS

For the third year in a row, the CIS recorded growth in overseas shipments of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff), which increased by 6% to X tons in 2021. Total exports indicated a strong increase from 2012 to 2021: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.5% over the last nine-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, exports increased by +35.5% against 2018 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 20%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum in 2021 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

In value terms, tobacco exports reached $X in 2021. In general, exports recorded a buoyant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 44% against the previous year. The level of export peaked in 2021 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports by Country

Russia (X tons) represented roughly 97% of total exports in 2021.

Russia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff) exports, with a CAGR of +6.2% from 2012 to 2021. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Russia decreased by -1.8 percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($X) also remains the largest tobacco supplier in the CIS.

In Russia, tobacco exports expanded at an average annual rate of +8.5% over the period from 2012-2021.

Export Prices by Country

In 2021, the export price in the CIS amounted to $X per ton, picking up by 6% against the previous year. Over the last nine years, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the export price increased by 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs in 2021 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

As there is only one major export destination, the average price level is determined by prices for Russia.

From 2012 to 2021, the rate of growth in terms of prices for Russia amounted to +2.1% per year.

Tobacco Imports

Imports in CIS

In 2021, tobacco imports in the CIS rose modestly to X tons, increasing by 4.7% against 2020 figures. Overall, imports posted a remarkable increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 37% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs in 2021 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, tobacco imports expanded sharply to $X in 2021. Over the period under review, imports continue to indicate resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 65%. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum in 2021 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports by Country

In 2021, Russia (X tons) represented the main importer of tobacco (smoking tobacco, chewing tobacco, snuff), committing 45% of total imports. Kazakhstan (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 22% share, followed by Azerbaijan (14%) and Belarus (13%). Uzbekistan (X tons) and Armenia (X tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2021, average annual rates of growth with regard to tobacco imports into Russia stood at +9.0%. At the same time, Armenia (+96.5%), Azerbaijan (+53.6%), Uzbekistan (+28.7%) and Kazakhstan (+5.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Armenia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the CIS, with a CAGR of +96.5% from 2012-2021. By contrast, Belarus (-1.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2021, the share of Azerbaijan, Russia, Uzbekistan and Armenia increased by +13, +3.1, +2.7 and +1.7 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, Russia ($X), Kazakhstan ($X) and Azerbaijan ($X) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2021, with a combined 79% share of total imports. These countries were followed by Belarus, Uzbekistan and Armenia, which together accounted for a further 18%.

In terms of the main importing countries, Armenia, with a CAGR of +101.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The import price in the CIS stood at $X per ton in 2021, increasing by 1.9% against the previous year. Import price indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2021: its price increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last nine years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2021 figures, tobacco import price increased by +46.8% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the import price increased by 34% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs in 2021 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2021, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Armenia ($X per ton), while Belarus ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2021, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+28.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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