CIS: Transmission Shaft Market 2024

Transmission Shaft Market Size in CIS

In 2022, the CIS transmission shaft market decreased by -4.2% to $X for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2021, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Transmission Shaft Production in CIS

In value terms, transmission shaft production expanded slightly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, recorded a perceptible downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 41%. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level at $X in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Transmission Shaft Exports

Exports in CIS

In 2022, overseas shipments of transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain increased by 8.8% to X tons, rising for the third consecutive year after two years of decline. Total exports indicated a tangible expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +12.4% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 43%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at X tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, transmission shaft exports amounted to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded a mild increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 with an increase of 27%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at $X in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

Russia represented the key exporting country with an export of around X tons, which finished at 55% of total exports. Belarus (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 29% share, followed by Kazakhstan (8.4%) and Armenia (5.6%).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Armenia (with a CAGR of +35.5%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Russia ($X) remains the largest transmission shaft supplier in the CIS, comprising 67% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Belarus ($X), with a 23% share of total exports. It was followed by Kazakhstan, with a 6.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Russia was relatively modest. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Belarus (+6.4% per year) and Kazakhstan (+8.6% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in the CIS stood at $X per ton in 2022, reducing by -7.6% against the previous year. Overall, the export price showed a slight reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the export price increased by 40%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $X per ton. From 2016 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Russia ($X per ton), while Armenia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kazakhstan (+1.7%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Transmission Shaft Imports

Imports in CIS

In 2022, supplies from abroad of transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain decreased by -3.7% to X tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Total imports indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +17.7% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 70%. The volume of import peaked at X tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, transmission shaft imports reduced modestly to $X in 2022. Total imports indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -4.6% against 2017 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 65% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

Russia dominates imports structure, amounting to X tons, which was near 75% of total imports in 2022. Kazakhstan (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 9.5% share, followed by Belarus (8.6%). Uzbekistan (X tons) took a little share of total imports.

Imports into Russia increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Uzbekistan (+16.3%), Kazakhstan (+5.6%) and Belarus (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Uzbekistan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the CIS, with a CAGR of +16.3% from 2012-2022. While the share of Uzbekistan (+3.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of Russia (-2.1 p.p.) and Belarus (-3.6 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported transmission shafts and cranks, bearing housings and plain shaft bearings, gears and gearing and articulated link chain in the CIS, comprising 72% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Kazakhstan ($X), with a 12% share of total imports. It was followed by Belarus, with a 7.7% share.

In Russia, transmission shaft imports expanded at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Kazakhstan (+6.1% per year) and Belarus (+0.4% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in the CIS stood at $X per ton in 2022, standing approx. at the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, saw a mild slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the import price increased by 4.4%. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Uzbekistan ($X per ton) and Kazakhstan ($X per ton), while Belarus ($X per ton) and Russia ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+1.1%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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