CIS: Refined Copper Market 2024

Refined Copper Market Size in CIS

The CIS refined copper market declined to $X in 2022, which is down by -10.2% against the previous year. Overall, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $X, and then shrank in the following year.

Refined Copper Production in CIS

In value terms, refined copper production reduced modestly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum level at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Refined Copper Exports

Exports in CIS

In 2022, approx. X tons of refined copper (unwrought, not alloyed) were exported in the CIS; jumping by 22% compared with the year before. Total exports indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -16.9% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when exports increased by 68% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, refined copper exports expanded remarkably to $X in 2022. Overall, exports showed a pronounced increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 46%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports by Country

Russia (X tons) and Kazakhstan (X tons) prevails in exports structure, together comprising 94% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Uzbekistan (X tons), generating a 6% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +9.0%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

In value terms, the largest refined copper supplying countries in the CIS were Russia ($X), Kazakhstan ($X) and Uzbekistan ($X), together accounting for 100% of total exports.

Uzbekistan, with a CAGR of +12.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, among the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

Export Prices by Country

The export price in the CIS stood at $X per ton in 2022, declining by -9.9% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the export price increased by 44% against the previous year. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $X per ton, and then contracted in the following year.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Uzbekistan ($X per ton), while Russia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+6.8%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Refined Copper Imports

Imports in CIS

Refined copper imports rose significantly to X tons in 2022, picking up by 12% against 2021. Over the period under review, imports recorded a moderate increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 213% against the previous year. The volume of import peaked at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, refined copper imports rose remarkably to $X in 2022. In general, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 446% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the maximum at $X in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

Russia prevails in imports structure, recording X tons, which was near 89% of total imports in 2022. Belarus (X tons), Azerbaijan (X tons) and Kazakhstan (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Russia was also the fastest-growing in terms of the refined copper (unwrought, not alloyed) imports, with a CAGR of +6.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Kazakhstan (+5.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Azerbaijan (-4.0%) and Belarus (-16.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Russia (+29 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of Azerbaijan (-2.9 p.p.) and Belarus (-26.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported refined copper (unwrought, not alloyed) in the CIS, comprising 85% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Belarus ($X), with a 5.1% share of total imports. It was followed by Kazakhstan, with a 5.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Russia amounted to +4.4%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Belarus (-16.1% per year) and Kazakhstan (+10.5% per year).

Import Prices by Country

The import price in the CIS stood at $X per ton in 2022, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price recorded a slight decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the import price increased by 75% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $X per ton. From 2018 to 2022, the import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Kazakhstan ($X per ton), while Russia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kazakhstan (+4.6%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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