CIS: Urea Market 2024

Urea Market Size in CIS

The CIS urea market totaled $X in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Urea Production in CIS

In value terms, urea production fell to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 38%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X, and then declined in the following year.

Urea Exports

Exports in CIS

In 2022, approx. X tons of urea were exported in the CIS; remaining stable against the previous year's figure. Total exports indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -1.1% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of X tons. From 2019 to 2022, the growth of the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, urea exports reduced to $X in 2022. Total exports indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +54.7% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 69% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $X, and then fell in the following year.

Exports by Country

Russia dominates exports structure, amounting to X tons, which was approx. 88% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by Azerbaijan (X tons), generating a 4.8% share of total exports. Uzbekistan (X tons) and Belarus (X tons) took a minor share of total exports.

Exports from Russia increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Uzbekistan (+4.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Uzbekistan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the CIS, with a CAGR of +4.8% from 2012-2022. Belarus and Azerbaijan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of Azerbaijan (+4.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Russia (-4.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($X) remains the largest urea supplier in the CIS, comprising 81% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Azerbaijan ($X), with an 8.5% share of total exports. It was followed by Uzbekistan, with a 6.9% share.

In Russia, urea exports remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Azerbaijan (0.0% per year) and Uzbekistan (+9.3% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in the CIS amounted to $X per ton, shrinking by -8.2% against the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a mild decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the export price increased by 70% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Uzbekistan ($X per ton), while Russia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+4.3%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Urea Imports

Imports in CIS

In 2022, supplies from abroad of urea decreased by -2% to X tons, falling for the second consecutive year after six years of growth. Overall, imports, however, recorded a strong expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by 61%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, urea imports amounted to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed perceptible growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when imports increased by 39% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

Belarus represented the largest importing country with an import of around X tons, which amounted to 38% of total imports. Tajikistan (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 20% share, followed by Kazakhstan (18%), Moldova (12%) and Kyrgyzstan (5%). Armenia (X tons) and Russia (X tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Armenia (with a CAGR of +38.0%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest urea importing markets in the CIS were Belarus ($X), Tajikistan ($X) and Moldova ($X), with a combined 73% share of total imports. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

Armenia, with a CAGR of +35.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The import price in the CIS stood at $X per ton in 2022, with an increase of 8.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the import price increased by 40% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices attained the maximum at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Russia ($X per ton), while Kazakhstan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kyrgyzstan (+3.9%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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