CIS: Whole Fresh Milk Market 2024

Whole Fresh Milk Market Size in CIS

The CIS whole fresh milk market fell slightly to $X in 2022, standing approx. at the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate a slight decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the market value increased by 9.7% against the previous year. The level of consumption peaked at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Whole Fresh Milk Production in CIS

In value terms, whole fresh milk production declined slightly to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production continues to indicate a perceptible descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 17%. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Russia (X tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of whole fresh milk production, comprising approx. 51% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk production in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Uzbekistan (X tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Belarus (X tons), with a 12% share.

In Russia, whole fresh milk production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Uzbekistan (+4.3% per year) and Belarus (+1.4% per year).

Whole Fresh Milk Exports

Exports in CIS

Whole fresh milk exports dropped to X tons in 2022, reducing by -9.1% against 2021. In general, exports recorded a noticeable setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when exports increased by 18%. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, whole fresh milk exports reduced to $X in 2022. Overall, exports showed a noticeable downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 31%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports by Country

In 2022, Belarus (X tons) represented the major exporter of whole fresh milk, making up 75% of total exports. Russia (X tons) took a 15% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Kazakhstan (6%). Kyrgyzstan (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to whole fresh milk exports from Belarus stood at -5.4%. At the same time, Kazakhstan (+24.7%) and Russia (+7.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Kazakhstan emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the CIS, with a CAGR of +24.7% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Kyrgyzstan (-6.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Russia (+9.8 p.p.) and Kazakhstan (+5.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Kyrgyzstan (-1.5 p.p.) and Belarus (-14.2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Belarus ($X) remains the largest whole fresh milk supplier in the CIS, comprising 76% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Russia ($X), with a 13% share of total exports. It was followed by Kazakhstan, with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Belarus amounted to -5.4%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Russia (+1.4% per year) and Kazakhstan (+22.4% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in the CIS stood at $X per ton in 2022, surging by 5.2% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the export price increased by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Kazakhstan ($X per ton) and Belarus ($X per ton), while Russia ($X per ton) and Kyrgyzstan ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belarus (-0.0%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Whole Fresh Milk Imports

Imports in CIS

Whole fresh milk imports skyrocketed to X tons in 2022, jumping by 20% on the previous year's figure. In general, imports continue to indicate a prominent increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 491% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, whole fresh milk imports soared to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports posted strong growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 475% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Russia (X tons) was the key importer of whole fresh milk, achieving 76% of total imports. Moldova (X tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Kazakhstan (X tons). All these countries together held approx. 20% share of total imports. Kyrgyzstan (X tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to whole fresh milk imports into Russia stood at +33.8%. At the same time, Moldova (+35.0%) and Kyrgyzstan (+26.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Moldova emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the CIS, with a CAGR of +35.0% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Kazakhstan (-9.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Russia (+60 p.p.) and Moldova (+9.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of Kazakhstan (-68.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported whole fresh milk in the CIS, comprising 73% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Moldova ($X), with a 12% share of total imports. It was followed by Kazakhstan, with an 8.5% share.

In Russia, whole fresh milk imports increased at an average annual rate of +30.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Moldova (+31.7% per year) and Kazakhstan (-9.5% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in the CIS amounted to $X per ton, leveling off at the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, continues to indicate a slight setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 35% against the previous year. The level of import peaked at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Kyrgyzstan ($X per ton), while Russia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kyrgyzstan (+1.7%), while the other leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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