Eastern Europe: Methanol Market 2024

Methanol Market Size in Eastern Europe

The East European methanol market contracted to $X in 2022, declining by -2% against the previous year. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Methanol Production in Eastern Europe

In value terms, methanol production contracted to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a mild curtailment. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the production volume increased by 80% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Methanol Exports

Exports in Eastern Europe

In 2022, the amount of methanol (methyl alcohol) exported in Eastern Europe expanded rapidly to X tons, with an increase of 7% against the previous year. Total exports indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, methanol exports contracted to $X in 2022. Total exports indicated a perceptible increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +61.0% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 74% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Exports by Country

Russia represented the main exporting country with an export of around X tons, which resulted at 78% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Poland (X tons), comprising a 17% share of total exports. Romania (X tons) held a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to methanol exports from Russia stood at +3.3%. At the same time, Poland (+24.1%) and Romania (+6.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Poland emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Eastern Europe, with a CAGR of +24.1% from 2012-2022. While the share of Poland (+14 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Russia (-6.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($X) remains the largest methanol supplier in Eastern Europe, comprising 66% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Poland ($X), with a 27% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Russia stood at +1.8%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Poland (+25.2% per year) and Romania (+8.3% per year).

Export Prices by Country

The export price in Eastern Europe stood at $X per ton in 2022, dropping by -9.4% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 68% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Romania ($X per ton), while Russia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Romania (+1.4%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Methanol Imports

Imports in Eastern Europe

In 2022, imports of methanol (methyl alcohol) in Eastern Europe rose notably to X tons, surging by 9.3% against 2021. Total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +15.3% against 2018 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 30%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, methanol imports surged to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports showed a prominent increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 79%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

Poland represented the largest importing country with an import of about X tons, which resulted at 57% of total imports. Romania (X tons) took a 14% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Lithuania (5.1%) and the Czech Republic (4.7%). The following importers - Belarus (X tons), Hungary (X tons) and Slovakia (X tons) - each finished at a 12% share of total imports.

Imports into Poland increased at an average annual rate of +9.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Belarus (+146.1%), Romania (+4.9%) and Lithuania (+3.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belarus emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Eastern Europe, with a CAGR of +146.1% from 2012-2022. The Czech Republic experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Hungary (-1.9%) and Slovakia (-2.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Poland (+15 p.p.) and Belarus (+4.3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of Romania (-2.1 p.p.), the Czech Republic (-4.9 p.p.), Slovakia (-5.1 p.p.) and Hungary (-5.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Poland ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported methanol (methyl alcohol) in Eastern Europe, comprising 54% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Romania ($X), with a 15% share of total imports. It was followed by the Czech Republic, with a 5.5% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Poland amounted to +10.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Romania (+5.5% per year) and the Czech Republic (+0.5% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in Eastern Europe amounted to $X per ton, increasing by 6.4% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the import price increased by 69% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Hungary ($X per ton), while Belarus ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Hungary (+2.0%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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