Eastern Europe: Wheat Market 2025

Wheat Market Size in Eastern Europe

The East European wheat market was estimated at $X in 2022, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. The total consumption indicated temperate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption increased by +24.1% against 2018 indices. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level at $X in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Wheat Production in Eastern Europe

In value terms, wheat production fell to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 23% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2018 to 2022, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

The country with the largest volume of wheat production was Russia (X tons), comprising approx. 51% of total volume. Moreover, wheat production in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Ukraine (X tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Poland (X tons), with a 7.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Russia amounted to +7.9%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Ukraine (+6.1% per year) and Poland (+3.6% per year).

The average wheat yield shrank modestly to X tons per ha in 2022, remaining stable against the year before. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the yield increased by 19%. The level of yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, approx. X ha of wheat were harvested in Eastern Europe; remaining stable against the previous year's figure. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the harvested area increased by 9.4%. The level of harvested area peaked at X ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Wheat Exports

Exports in Eastern Europe

In 2022, exports of wheat in Eastern Europe declined to X tons, reducing by -7.1% on 2021 figures. Total exports indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -15.3% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 35%. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, wheat exports reduced slightly to $X in 2022. Total exports indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +85.2% against 2013 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 32%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at $X in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

Exports by Country

Russia was the largest exporting country with an export of around X tons, which accounted for 46% of total exports. Ukraine (X tons) held a 16% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Romania (8.2%), Bulgaria (5.8%) and Poland (5.2%). The following exporters - Lithuania (X tons) and Hungary (X tons) - each recorded an 8.3% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to wheat exports from Russia stood at +7.2%. At the same time, Poland (+14.1%), Romania (+9.4%), Hungary (+7.9%), Lithuania (+5.9%), Bulgaria (+5.1%) and Ukraine (+2.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Poland emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in Eastern Europe, with a CAGR of +14.1% from 2012-2022. While the share of Russia (+3.3 p.p.), Poland (+2.6 p.p.) and Romania (+2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Ukraine (-6.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Russia ($X) remains the largest wheat supplier in Eastern Europe, comprising 39% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Ukraine ($X), with a 14% share of total exports. It was followed by Romania, with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Russia totaled +5.3%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Ukraine (+1.4% per year) and Romania (+11.7% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in Eastern Europe amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of 6.9% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the export price increased by 23% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Poland ($X per ton), while Russia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Romania (+2.1%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Wheat Imports

Imports in Eastern Europe

In 2022, wheat imports in Eastern Europe skyrocketed to X tons, rising by 27% against the previous year. Total imports indicated tangible growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +34.6% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when imports increased by 114% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of X tons. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wheat imports surged to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, imports posted a buoyant expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when imports increased by 78% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports by Country

Romania (X tons) and Poland (X tons) represented the main importers of wheat in 2022, reaching near 28% and 25% of total imports, respectively. It was distantly followed by Latvia (X tons) and Hungary (X tons), together generating a 31% share of total imports. Lithuania (X tons), Russia (X tons) and Slovakia (X tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Hungary (with a CAGR of +24.0%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Romania ($X), Poland ($X) and Latvia ($X) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 68% of total imports. Hungary, Russia, Lithuania and Slovakia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 25%.

Hungary, with a CAGR of +22.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

The import price in Eastern Europe stood at $X per ton in 2022, increasing by 7.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 26% against the previous year. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Russia ($X per ton) and Lithuania ($X per ton), while Hungary ($X per ton) and Poland ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia (+4.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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