Eastern Europe: Whole Fresh Milk Market 2024

Whole Fresh Milk Market Size in Eastern Europe

The East European whole fresh milk market dropped slightly to $X in 2022, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Overall, consumption, however, recorded a pronounced contraction. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $X in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Whole Fresh Milk Production in Eastern Europe

In value terms, whole fresh milk production shrank to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a perceptible contraction. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Russia (X tons) remains the largest whole fresh milk producing country in Eastern Europe, accounting for 41% of total volume. Moreover, whole fresh milk production in Russia exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Poland (X tons), twofold. Ukraine (X tons) ranked third in terms of total production with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Russia was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Poland (+1.6% per year) and Ukraine (-2.3% per year).

Whole Fresh Milk Exports

Exports in Eastern Europe

For the sixth consecutive year, Eastern Europe recorded growth in overseas shipments of whole fresh milk, which increased by 0.2% to X tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 10%. The volume of export peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, whole fresh milk exports skyrocketed to $X in 2022. Total exports indicated noticeable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +86.2% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 32% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports by Country

The Czech Republic (X tons) and Poland (X tons) represented the largest exporters of whole fresh milk in 2022, recording near 29% and 24% of total exports, respectively. It was distantly followed by Latvia (X tons), Hungary (X tons), Estonia (X tons) and Belarus (X tons), together making up a 36% share of total exports. Slovakia (X tons) took a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Poland (with a CAGR of +12.7%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest whole fresh milk supplying countries in Eastern Europe were the Czech Republic ($X), Poland ($X) and Latvia ($X), together comprising 66% of total exports.

Poland, with a CAGR of +13.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in Eastern Europe amounted to $X per ton, increasing by 20% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.8%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the export price increased by 29% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Poland ($X per ton) and Belarus ($X per ton), while Estonia ($X per ton) and Latvia ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Latvia (+3.5%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Whole Fresh Milk Imports

Imports in Eastern Europe

In 2022, approx. X tons of whole fresh milk were imported in Eastern Europe; increasing by 9.6% on the previous year's figure. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 22%. The volume of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, whole fresh milk imports soared to $X in 2022. Total imports indicated a buoyant increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +79.3% against 2019 indices. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports by Country

Lithuania was the major importing country with an import of about X tons, which amounted to 38% of total imports. Romania (X tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 14% share, followed by Russia (13%), Latvia (9.1%), Poland (6.4%) and Slovakia (5%). Bulgaria (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to whole fresh milk imports into Lithuania stood at +3.9%. At the same time, Russia (+33.8%), Bulgaria (+12.0%), Latvia (+8.3%), Romania (+5.8%) and Slovakia (+4.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Russia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in Eastern Europe, with a CAGR of +33.8% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Poland (-1.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Russia (+12 p.p.), Latvia (+2.6 p.p.) and Bulgaria (+2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total imports from 2012-2022, the share of Lithuania (-3.7 p.p.) and Poland (-5.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Lithuania ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported whole fresh milk in Eastern Europe, comprising 36% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Romania ($X), with a 13% share of total imports. It was followed by Russia, with a 13% share.

In Lithuania, whole fresh milk imports increased at an average annual rate of +7.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Romania (+6.5% per year) and Russia (+30.2% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in Eastern Europe amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.0%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 26%. The level of import peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Bulgaria ($X per ton) and Poland ($X per ton), while Lithuania ($X per ton) and Romania ($X per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lithuania (+3.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

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