ECOWAS: Wheat Market 2025

Wheat Market Size in ECOWAS

The ECOWAS wheat market stood at $X in 2022, stabilizing at the previous year. In general, consumption, however, posted a strong increase. The level of consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Wheat Production in ECOWAS

In value terms, wheat production reached $X in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production recorded a perceptible curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 25%. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Nigeria (X tons) remains the largest wheat producing country in ECOWAS, comprising approx. 66% of total volume. Moreover, wheat production in Nigeria exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Mali (X tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Niger (X tons), with a 4.1% share.

In Nigeria, wheat production contracted by an average annual rate of -3.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Mali (-3.2% per year) and Niger (+3.6% per year).

The average wheat yield reached X tons per ha in 2022, picking up by 11% on 2021 figures. In general, the yield recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 40%. The level of yield peaked at X tons per ha in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

The wheat harvested area fell dramatically to X ha in 2022, which is down by -17% on the previous year's figure. Overall, the harvested area showed a pronounced descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the harvested area increased by 51%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to wheat production attained the peak figure at X ha in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Wheat Exports

Exports in ECOWAS

In 2022, approx. X tons of wheat were exported in ECOWAS; growing by 6.3% compared with 2021 figures. Total exports indicated a temperate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +133.1% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 119% against the previous year. The volume of export peaked at X tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wheat exports declined to $X in 2022. Total exports indicated buoyant growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +73.5% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 63%. The level of export peaked at $X in 2021, and then reduced in the following year.

Exports by Country

Liberia represented the major exporting country with an export of around X tons, which finished at 56% of total exports. Senegal (X tons) took the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by Cote d'Ivoire (X tons) and Guinea (X tons). All these countries together held approx. 36% share of total exports. The following exporters - Togo (X tons) and Nigeria (X tons) - each finished at a 7.8% share of total exports.

Exports from Liberia increased at an average annual rate of +8.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Senegal (+38.5%), Cote d'Ivoire (+36.7%) and Togo (+18.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Senegal emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in ECOWAS, with a CAGR of +38.5% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Nigeria (-3.8%) and Guinea (-14.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Liberia (+23 p.p.), Senegal (+20 p.p.), Cote d'Ivoire (+9.2 p.p.) and Togo (+3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the total exports from 2012-2022, the share of Nigeria (-3.6 p.p.) and Guinea (-26.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics.

In value terms, Liberia ($X) remains the largest wheat supplier in ECOWAS, comprising 69% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Senegal ($X), with a 17% share of total exports. It was followed by Cote d'Ivoire, with a 6.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Liberia totaled +18.5%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Senegal (+35.1% per year) and Cote d'Ivoire (+39.2% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2022, the export price in ECOWAS amounted to $X per ton, dropping by -11.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, recorded a tangible expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the export price increased by 187%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level of $X per ton. From 2021 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Liberia ($X per ton), while Guinea ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Liberia (+9.0%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Wheat Imports

Imports in ECOWAS

In 2022, wheat imports in ECOWAS contracted slightly to X tons, declining by -3.8% compared with the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a remarkable increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 37%. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wheat imports expanded significantly to $X in 2022. In general, imports, however, enjoyed resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 48% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Nigeria (X tons) was the largest importer of wheat, comprising 39% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Ghana (X tons), Cote d'Ivoire (X tons), Senegal (X tons), Guinea (X tons) and Mali (X tons), together creating a 52% share of total imports. Burkina Faso (X tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into Nigeria increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Guinea (+44.8%), Mali (+13.1%), Burkina Faso (+12.0%), Ghana (+6.8%), Senegal (+4.4%) and Cote d'Ivoire (+3.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Guinea emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in ECOWAS, with a CAGR of +44.8% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Guinea and Mali increased by +8.4 and +3.4 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Nigeria ($X) constitutes the largest market for imported wheat in ECOWAS, comprising 72% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Ghana ($X), with a 5.9% share of total imports. It was followed by Cote d'Ivoire, with a 5.8% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Nigeria totaled +7.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Ghana (+4.3% per year) and Cote d'Ivoire (+1.1% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the import price in ECOWAS amounted to $X per ton, surging by 10% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 29%. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Nigeria ($X per ton), while Mali ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nigeria (+2.9%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Source: IndexBox Platform