Ethiopia: Grain Market 2025

Grain Market Size in Ethiopia

In 2022, the Ethiopian grain market decreased by X% to $X for the first time since 2015, thus ending a six-year rising trend. The market value increased at an average annual rate of X% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Grain consumption peaked at $X in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Grain Production in Ethiopia

In value terms, grain production amounted to $X in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production posted a perceptible increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of X% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2015 to 2022, production growth failed to regain momentum.

In 2022, the average grain yield in Ethiopia was estimated at X tons per ha, remaining constant against the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of X% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average grain yield hit record highs at X tons per ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

In 2022, the grain harvested area in Ethiopia fell slightly to X ha, remaining stable against 2021 figures. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the harvested area increased by X%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to grain production reached the maximum at X ha in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Grain Exports

Exports from Ethiopia

In 2022, overseas shipments of cereal grains decreased by X% to X tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a mild increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of X%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at X tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, grain exports declined markedly to $X in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, recorded a resilient expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of X%. Over the period under review, the exports reached the peak figure at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

Kenya (X tons), South Sudan (X tons) and Israel (X tons) were the main destinations of grain exports from Ethiopia, together comprising X% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Kenya (with a CAGR of X%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for grain exported from Ethiopia were South Sudan ($X), Kenya ($X) and the United States ($X), with a combined X% share of total exports.

Among the main countries of destination, Kenya, with a CAGR of X%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average grain export price stood at $X per ton in 2022, with a decrease of X% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a noticeable increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, grain export price increased by X% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of X%. The export price peaked at $X per ton in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Kenya ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to the United Arab Emirates (X%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Grain Imports

Imports into Ethiopia

In 2022, the amount of cereal grains imported into Ethiopia fell dramatically to X tons, waning by X% on the previous year. In general, imports, however, posted noticeable growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by X%. As a result, imports attained the peak of X tons. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, grain imports contracted to $X in 2022. Overall, imports, however, showed a buoyant increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when imports increased by X% against the previous year. Imports peaked at $X in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

Imports by Country

The United States (X tons), Ukraine (X tons) and Argentina (X tons) were the main suppliers of grain imports to Ethiopia, together comprising X% of total imports. India, Russia, Bulgaria and Romania lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further X%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by India (with a CAGR of X%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($X) constituted the largest supplier of cereal grains to Ethiopia, comprising X% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Ukraine ($X), with a X% share of total imports. It was followed by Argentina, with a X% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from the United States totaled X%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Ukraine (X% per year) and Argentina (X% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the average grain import price amounted to $X per ton, increasing by X% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, grain import price increased by X% against 2016 indices. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Argentina ($X per ton), while the price for India ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (X%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform