Ethiopia: Green Coffee Market 2024

Green Coffee Market Size in Ethiopia

The Ethiopian green coffee market surged to $X in 2022, picking up by 60% against the previous year. Overall, consumption saw a strong expansion. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level at $X in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Green Coffee Production in Ethiopia

In value terms, green coffee production totaled $X in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 36%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $X. From 2021 to 2022, production growth remained at a lower figure.

In 2022, the average yield of coffee (green) in Ethiopia was estimated at X kg per ha, leveling off at the year before. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 40% against the previous year. The green coffee yield peaked at X kg per ha in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the yield remained at a lower figure. Despite the increased use of modern agricultural techniques and methods, future yield figures may still be impacted by adverse weather conditions.

The green coffee harvested area in Ethiopia rose rapidly to X ha in 2022, growing by 12% against 2021. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 when the harvested area increased by 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to green coffee production attained the maximum at X ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Green Coffee Exports

Exports from Ethiopia

In 2022, approx. X tons of coffee (green) were exported from Ethiopia; with a decrease of -11.9% on the previous year. Overall, total exports indicated perceptible growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +140.6% against 2018 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when exports increased by 134%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at X tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, green coffee exports reduced notably to $X in 2022. In general, exports, however, saw a mild expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 when exports increased by 112%. The exports peaked at $X in 2021, and then declined markedly in the following year.

Exports by Country

Germany (X tons), Saudi Arabia (X tons) and the United States (X tons) were the main destinations of green coffee exports from Ethiopia, with a combined 49% share of total exports. Japan, South Korea, Sudan, China, France, Italy, Australia, Taiwan (Chinese), Russia and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +37.2%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for green coffee exported from Ethiopia were Germany ($X), the United States ($X) and Saudi Arabia ($X), with a combined 46% share of total exports. Japan, South Korea, Italy, France, China, Australia, Taiwan (Chinese), Sudan, Belgium and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

In terms of the main countries of destination, China, with a CAGR of +32.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

The average green coffee export price stood at $X per ton in 2022, falling by -5.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price recorded a mild decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the average export price increased by 22%. The export price peaked at $X per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to Sudan ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to South Korea (+0.1%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced a decline.

Green Coffee Imports

Imports into Ethiopia

In 2022, supplies from abroad of coffee (green) was finally on the rise to reach X tons for the first time since 2014, thus ending a seven-year declining trend. In general, imports enjoyed strong growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when imports increased by 275%. Imports peaked at X tons in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, green coffee imports fell slightly to $X in 2022. Overall, imports enjoyed prominent growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 469% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports reached the maximum at $X in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports by Country

In 2022, Yemen (X tons) was the main green coffee supplier to Ethiopia, accounting for a 95% share of total imports. It was followed by the United Arab Emirates (X kg), with a 2.1% share of total imports. Saudi Arabia (X kg) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 1.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume from Yemen stood at +32.0%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the United Arab Emirates (+23.3% per year) and Saudi Arabia (-27.7% per year).

In value terms, Yemen ($X) constituted the largest supplier of coffee (green) to Ethiopia, comprising 91% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by the United Arab Emirates ($X), with a 3.6% share of total imports. It was followed by Italy, with a 2.6% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value from Yemen stood at +44.2%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: the United Arab Emirates (+40.1% per year) and Italy (-14.6% per year).

Import Prices by Country

In 2022, the average green coffee import price amounted to $X per ton, declining by -2.2% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a remarkable increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +9.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, green coffee import price increased by +7.1% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the average import price increased by 96% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $X per ton. From 2015 to 2022, the average import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($X per ton), while the price for Saudi Arabia ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+19.9%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform